Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ON Semiconductor (ON)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$71.24-1.87%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.50 → 4.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return capital to shareholders via share buybacks | A supporting condition in ON Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.4B share repurchases in 2026. | Intact | share repurchases fall below $1.4B in 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ON is a growth-oriented semiconductor business with a multi-year thesis tied to expanding automotive, industrial, and AI data center demand. The thesis is intact, but its signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as risk remains elevated and management execution has been variable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ON is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a 0.51 premium, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. Overall, the snapshot tags pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to unusually high expectations being built in.
Near term, performance looks steady rather than clearly accelerating: recent financial performance is neutral, and the estimated miss risk is low, though industry peers have missed and ON has a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, revenue, gross margin, and operating income have improved, while management says AI data center revenue is expected to more than double in 2026. Capital returns are also continuing, with repurchases exceeding year-to-date free cash flow through 2026-Q2.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the history of estimates being revised down after cuts. The favorable case depends in part on lower interest rates and stabilization among major technology companies. The longer-term case also hinges on continued growth in automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets, alongside margin improvement.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business has evidence of improving execution and growth, but the mixed signal, elevated risk, and possible guidance setback remain important constraints. The thesis is intact, with progress depending on market expansion and steady operating improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Q4 2025 Business Highlights: • Announced the authorization of a new share repurchase program of up to $6 billion over the next three years.” ““In 2025, we generated $1.4 billion of free cash flow and returned 100% of our annual free cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases.”
Improve gross margin to about 38.9% next quarter | They plan to improve gross margin to about 38.9% next quarter. | Broken | gross margin falls below 37.9% in 2026-Q2 | Gross margin: 41.4% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~38.9% gross margin in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202641.39813 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As we execute our ongoing fab right initiatives and ramp new differentiated products, we are driving further margin and earnings expansion, positioning onsemi for durable, profitable growth.”” ““Our third quarter revenue, gross margin and earnings per share exceeded the midpoint of our guidance, while AI data center revenue grew 39% sequentially and 175% year-over-year.”” Gross profit was $713.000 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow revenue in automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets | ON Semiconductor aims to grow in automotive, industrial, and AI markets. | Broken | revenue falls below $1.513B in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $1.722B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.585B revenue in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20261,722,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As we execute our ongoing fab right initiatives and ramp new differentiated products, we are driving further margin and earnings expansion, positioning onsemi for durable, profitable growth.”” ““Our third quarter revenue, gross margin and earnings per share exceeded the midpoint of our guidance, while AI data center revenue grew 39% sequentially and 175% year-over-year.”” Revenue was $1.722 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.25 → $4.73 · observed estimates
$7.20B → $7.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.25 | $7,199,482,291 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.25 | $7,199,482,291 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.34 | $7,222,130,920 | 29 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.34 | $7,222,130,920 | 29 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.34 | $7,222,130,920 | 29 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.34 | $7,222,130,920 | 29 / 27 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.34 | $7,222,130,920 | 29 / 27 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.30 | $7,208,160,783 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.52 | $7,394,684,520 | 30 / 29 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.52 | $7,394,684,520 | 30 / 29 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.53 | $7,392,312,853 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.50 | $7,394,263,348 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.50 | $7,395,186,425 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.50 | $7,399,340,271 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.50 | $7,399,340,271 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.50 | $7,399,340,271 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.50 | $7,407,890,321 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.50 | $7,407,890,321 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.50 | $7,407,882,636 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.50 | $7,407,882,636 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.50 | $7,407,882,636 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.50 | $7,407,882,636 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.50 | $7,407,375,872 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.50 | $7,407,371,205 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.50 | $7,407,371,205 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.50 | $7,407,371,205 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.50 | $7,407,369,724 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.52 | $7,415,517,234 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.52 | $7,415,517,234 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.52 | $7,415,517,234 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.52 | $7,415,517,234 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.52 | $7,415,503,601 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.52 | $7,402,225,669 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.52 | $7,407,047,891 | 21 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.64 | $7,520,218,998 | 20 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.73 | $7,582,178,974 | 20 / 20 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.