ON Semiconductor (ON)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$71.24-1.87%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ON — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. As previously announced, on June 25, 2026, ON Semiconductor Corporation (“ onsemi ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Sonic Acquisition Corp., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of onsemi (“ Merger Sub ”), and Synaptics Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (“ Synaptics ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the conditions specified therein, Merger Sub will merge with a…
Why it matters: The revised deal costs about $5.7 billion, down from about $7 billion. Its value case also rests on EPS gains after closing.
Supportive ifAfter the deal closes, onsemi reports that Synaptics adds to non-GAAP EPS in the first full quarter.
Worry ifAfter the deal closes, onsemi reports no non-GAAP EPS gain, or reports deal costs that erase the gain.
Why it matters: Q2 non-GAAP gross margin was 39.3%. The Q3 guide starts at 40%, so results can test the margin gain.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is above 40%, the bottom of the company’s 40% to 42% guide.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below 39.3%, its Q2 level.
Why it matters: Management called AI data center its fastest-growing business. Meeting this goal would back its expansion plans.
Supportive ifThe next earnings release says 2026 AI data center revenue is on track to more than double from 2025.
Worry ifManagement cuts or drops its goal for 2026 AI data center revenue to more than double.
Why it matters: The Q2 guide set a $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion range. A result above its midpoint would show demand kept growing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $1.70 billion, the midpoint of the $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion guide.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $1.65 billion, the bottom of the guide.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$241 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $498 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,027 loss on $10,000 · 50.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.