ON Semiconductor (ON)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.38+0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ON — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. As previously announced, on June 25, 2026, ON Semiconductor Corporation (“ onsemi ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Sonic Acquisition Corp., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of onsemi (“ Merger Sub ”), and Synaptics Incorporated, a Delaware corporation (“ Synaptics ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the conditions specified therein, Merger Sub will merge with a…
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 37.9%.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains above 39.9%.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifNew share buyback program announced, exceeding the current $6 billion plan.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or a reduction in the current buyback program.
Why it matters: Improving gross margin is crucial for profitability. A rise above 10% would be positive.
Supportive ifGross margin improvement reported above 10% in the next earnings call.
Worry ifGross margin improvement reported below 5% in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue would show market problems and slow growth efforts.
Worry ifQ1 2026 revenue was below $1.5 billion, down more than 12% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ1 2026 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$291 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $498 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,629 loss on $10,000 · 46.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong earnings may show that onsemi is recovering. This could mean better market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows revenue above $1,635 million and diluted EPS above $0.72.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows revenue below $1,535 million or diluted EPS below $0.60.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is a top priority. A drop below 5% signals trouble.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at 5% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if demand continues to grow, especially in AI applications. A strong guidance suggests ongoing momentum in key markets.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed within the range of $1,650M to $1,750M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $1,650M.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows strong demand in a key area. It shows onsemi's strength in AI.
Supportive ifAI data center revenue growth exceeds 30% YoY in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAI data center revenue growth falls below 30% YoY.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow and a focus on giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $1.5 billion in 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $1 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: Big share buybacks show strong money management and faith in the company. This could raise shareholder value.
Supportive ifNews of share buybacks over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo big share buyback news or cuts in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: This guidance shows good operations and cost control. Higher margins mean more profit.
Supportive ifGross margin guidance is confirmed at 39.9% or higher.
Worry ifGross margin guidance falls below 39.9%.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help onsemi grow its market and product offerings. Completing it would boost growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is on track and has all the needed approvals.
Worry ifThe acquisition may have delays or not get the needed approvals.