Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Old National Bank (ONB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.05-3.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.89 → 2.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted noninterest expense at or below $354 million | Old National Bank keeps cutting costs, lowering noninterest expenses to $354 million. | Intact | Adjusted noninterest expense rises above $354 million next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ONB is a commercial bank with a measured growth and operating-efficiency story, rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact, but fragile earnings quality and a recent drop in company momentum temper the strong recent results.
ONB is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence labels its current expectations as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is modest, so the valuation evidence points to limited room for a major gap between current expectations and the business outlook.
Over the multi-year view, stated priorities are translating into growth: loans and deposits increased year over year, while adjusted expenses fell and the efficiency ratio reached a record low. Near term, earnings were in line in October after a July beat; the risk of a miss is rated low, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The thesis depends on continued commercial loan growth, deposit growth, and expense discipline without weakening earnings quality. Near term, a guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts could weigh on the business, while continued strength from financial-sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, ONB’s thesis rests on whether its improving operating measures can persist despite fragile earnings quality and rate sensitivity. The thesis remains intact, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank steadily raises its quarterly dividend to $0.145 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.145 next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income applicable to common shares at or above $229.6 million | Net income rose to $229.6 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Net income falls below $229.6 million next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.88 → $2.80 · observed estimates
$3.06B → $3.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.88 | $3,056,981,190 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.88 | $3,058,357,480 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.90 | $3,065,640,792 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.89 | $3,065,468,600 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.89 | $3,065,468,600 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.89 | $3,063,913,040 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.89 | $3,063,913,040 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.90 | $3,064,074,773 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.89 | $3,063,135,260 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.89 | $3,063,135,260 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.89 | $3,063,135,260 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.89 | $3,063,327,906 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.88 | $3,061,695,116 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.89 | $3,066,241,014 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.89 | $3,066,241,014 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.89 | $3,066,241,014 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.89 | $3,066,241,014 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.89 | $3,066,241,014 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.88 | $3,065,536,860 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.89 | $3,065,536,860 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.89 | $3,064,809,587 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.89 | $3,067,060,605 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.89 | $3,067,060,605 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.89 | $3,067,060,605 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.89 | $3,067,060,605 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.89 | $3,067,058,655 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.89 | $3,067,060,605 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.89 | $3,063,686,903 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.89 | $3,063,686,903 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.89 | $3,063,686,903 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.89 | $3,063,686,903 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.89 | $3,063,610,958 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.89 | $3,064,122,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.89 | $3,064,122,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.89 | $3,062,313,958 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.89 | $3,063,222,292 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.86 | $3,046,316,796 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.82 | $3,032,474,580 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.81 | $3,027,463,377 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.80 | $3,021,371,710 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.80 | $3,021,371,710 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.80 | $3,018,382,727 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.80 | $3,018,382,727 | 11 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.