Old National Bank (ONB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.04+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ONB — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events. On August 12, 2026 , Old National Bancorp ( the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.145 per share on its outstanding shares of common stock. This dividend is payable on September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on September 5, 2026. In addition, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.50 per share (equivalent to $0.4375 per depositary s…
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the bank is enhancing profitability. This aligns with management's priority to increase net income.
Supportive ifNet income grows more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth is 5% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good business execution. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income applicable to common shares grows more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifNet income growth is less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend news shows the company values its shareholders. It wants to give them value.
Supportive ifThe company maintains or increases the quarterly cash dividend from $0.145 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.145 per share.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in finance falls below average, it may show bigger economic problems. These issues could affect Old National Bank.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,772 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean customers are less confident. It could also show more competition in banking.
Worry ifTotal deposits growth drops below 3% per year.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits growth stays at or above 3% per year.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows good financial health. It also shows a promise to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifOld National announces a dividend increase above $0.145 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 13% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 13% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This helps them make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 shows a year-over-year increase of more than 5%.
Worry ifIf Q2 operating income falls or rises less than 2% from last year.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means costs are rising compared to revenue. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 efficiency ratio is above 48%. This shows costs are rising or there are inefficiencies.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio is below 48%. This shows better cost management.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may mean less demand or more competition. This can lower overall revenue.
Worry ifTotal loans growth in Q3 is below 7% annualized. This suggests weaker loan demand.
Less concerning ifTotal loans growth is above 7% annualized. This shows strong demand.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs might mean worse credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs in Q3 are over $32.2 million. This shows rising credit risk.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs in Q3 remain below or equal to $32.2 million.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may mean lower profits. Investors pay close attention to margins.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin is below 3.50%. This shows possible profit problems.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is above 3.50%. This shows profits are stable.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement shows the company wants to give value to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.145 per share for Q4.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the quarterly cash dividend below $0.145 per share.