Old National Bank (ONB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.89+1.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ONB — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026, Old National Bancorp (the “Company”) issued a press release (“Press Release”) reporting its financial results for the third quarter 2026. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. A slide presentation outlining third quarter 2026 earnings, strategic developments, and the Company’s financial outlook will be available on the “Investor Relations” section of the Company’s websi…
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose from 26 to 27 basis points in Q3. A further rise could signal worsening loan losses.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-offs exceed 27 basis points of average loans.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-offs are 27 basis points or lower, while delinquencies stay at or below 0.25%.
Why it matters: A weaker jobs report may point to more stress for bank borrowers. A steady report would ease that concern.
Watch forThe November 6 report shows steady or rising employment, with no drop in the number of jobs.
Also watch forThe November 6 report shows a drop in the number of jobs.
Why it matters: Deposits grew in Q3, but their cost rose by 8 basis points. Growth with stable costs would support funding strength.
Supportive ifQ4 deposits at period-end exceed $57.6 billion. Total deposit costs are 179 basis points or less.
Worry ifQ4 deposits fall below $57.6 billion, or total deposit costs rise above 179 basis points.
Why it matters: The dividend is a clear sign of cash returned to owners. A cut would reverse the recent payout level.
Watch forThe next declaration keeps the common dividend at or above $0.145 per share.
Also watch forThe next declaration cuts the common dividend below $0.145 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,772 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Commercial lending drove recent loan growth. Another increase would support the bank's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ4 period-end loans rise from $51.2 billion, with commercial loans adding to the increase.
Worry ifQ4 period-end loans fall below $51.2 billion, or commercial loans shrink.