Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BEONE MEDICINES LTD (ONC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$387.25+2.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.00 → 10.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin near 80% in FY26 | A primary condition in BEONE MEDICINES LTD's published investment case. The stated target is around 80%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 75% in FY26 | Gross margin: 89.76% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: around 80%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202689.764063 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented healthcare business with recent strong financial performance, but it is not yet consistently profitable on the evidence provided. The long-term thesis is intact, and management is delivering on its stated growth and efficiency priorities.
ONC is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes expectations as stretched, with a possible re-rating as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is 0.13, but confidence in that estimate is low; no fragility warning has been triggered.
Near term, results have strengthened: recent earnings beats, rising BRUKINSA revenue, higher gross margin, and increased operating income supported a substantial guidance raise for 2026. Execution is on track, but earnings remain loss-making overall by the snapshot’s classification, and recent surprises have been erratic.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued BRUKINSA expansion and progress toward higher operating income and margins. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while weaker employment data could add pressure to cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector leaders could support the backdrop.
The multi-year view is supported by improving execution and a favorable sector backdrop, but stretched valuation raises the importance of sustained delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “BeOne’s total revenue guidance for full year 2026 of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion includes expectations for strong revenue growth driven by BRUKINSA’s leadership position in the U.S. and continued global expansion in both Europe and other important rest of world markets.” “(NASDAQ: ONC; HKEX: 06160; SSE: 688235), a global oncology company, today announced financial results and corporate updates from the second quarter of 2026.” Gross profit was $1.531 billion in 2026-Q2.
Reach operating income of $750-$850 million in FY26 | Operating income rises toward $750-$850M. | Intact | operating income falls below $700M in FY26 | Operating income: $325.047M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $750M and <= $850M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026325,047,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance three programs to Phase 3 trials by mid-2026 | A supporting condition in BEONE MEDICINES LTD's published investment case. The stated target is three programs in Phase 3 by mid-2026. | Intact | failure to advance key programs to Phase 3 by mid-2026 | 3 programs in Phase 3 vs target of 3 by mid-2026 BeOne signals solid tumor breakout as three programs near Phase 3; FDA approval for sonrotoclax reinforces pipeline progress. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $6.3-$6.5 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in BEONE MEDICINES LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.3B and <= $6.5B. | Intact | revenue falls below $6.3B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.705B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.3B and <= $6.5B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261,705,071,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “BeOne’s total revenue guidance for full year 2026 of $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion includes expectations for strong revenue growth driven by BRUKINSA’s leadership position in the U.S. and continued global expansion in both Europe and other important rest of world markets.” “(NASDAQ: ONC; HKEX: 06160; SSE: 688235), a global oncology company, today announced financial results and corporate updates from the second quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.81 → $10.28 · observed estimates
$7.52B → $7.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.81 | $7,523,682,875 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.68 | $7,454,306,940 | 16 / 34 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.81 | $7,527,751,532 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.81 | $7,527,751,532 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.69 | $7,454,306,940 | 15 / 34 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.81 | $7,527,751,532 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.69 | $7,454,306,940 | 15 / 34 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.81 | $7,527,751,532 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.81 | $7,527,751,532 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.15 | $7,663,309,080 | 15 / 32 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.15 | $7,663,309,080 | 15 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.15 | $7,663,309,080 | 15 / 32 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.29 | $7,694,431,450 | 16 / 31 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.94 | $7,662,035,630 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.97 | $7,811,442,558 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.97 | $7,811,442,558 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.97 | $7,811,442,558 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.97 | $7,811,442,558 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.97 | $7,811,442,558 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.11 | $7,797,489,254 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.14 | $7,804,399,219 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.14 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.16 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.16 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.16 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.16 | $7,804,383,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.16 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.04 | $7,804,433,025 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.03 | $7,807,734,938 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.03 | $7,807,734,938 | 12 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.03 | $7,807,734,938 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.00 | $7,802,134,938 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.00 | $7,802,134,938 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.00 | $7,802,134,938 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.00 | $7,802,134,938 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.00 | $7,802,124,824 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.00 | $7,802,124,824 | 12 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.00 | $7,803,807,624 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.00 | $7,803,321,910 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.00 | $7,803,321,910 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.00 | $7,803,321,910 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.00 | $7,803,321,910 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.00 | $7,803,321,910 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.00 | $7,808,933,782 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.00 | $7,808,933,782 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.00 | $7,812,311,943 | 11 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.28 | $7,812,303,482 | 12 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.