Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Onity Group, Inc. (ONIT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.22+4.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.28 → 5.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONIT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted ROE at or above 10% in 2026 | The company targets adjusted ROE of 10% to 15% in 2026. | Intact | adjusted ROE falls below 10% in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financially sensitive, higher-risk business with a fragile earnings profile, not a proven durable compounder. Its thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, although the signal recently improved to favorable.
ONIT is cheap versus peers, but the valuation evidence also points to a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations remain cautious. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility; that suggests weak execution is recognized without evidence that all business risks are reflected.
Near term, earnings remain the main concern: ONIT has had consecutive misses and erratic surprises, with elevated risk of another miss. Management has simplified the business by completing most of the reverse mortgage servicing-rights sale, while adjusted return-on-equity guidance remains 10% to 15%; the latest reported result was 9% annualized, below that range.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether management can improve execution and meet its guidance, rather than cut it at the next call. Near-term sector conditions also matter: lower rates could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ONIT remains a watch-state thesis with peer-cheap valuation but weak fundamentals and elevated earnings risk. Evidence of steadier execution is the key missing support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Onity Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.2 EPS. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $12.2 in 2025 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.2 EPS. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 2026-1.53 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near consensus of 1.3% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Onity Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 1% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share buyback program up to $10 million | It has a $10 million share buyback program approved. | Intact | buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.07 → $5.92 · observed estimates
$1.30B → $1.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.07 | $1,304,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.32 | $1,163,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.32 | $1,163,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.42 | $1,172,848,267 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.28 | $1,199,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.92 | $1,164,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.