Onity Group, Inc. (ONIT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.70+7.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONIT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
ONIT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and the information in the related exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Onity kept its 10% to 15% adjusted ROE goal, but Q2 was 9%. A Q3 result at or above 10% would show progress.
Supportive ifOnity reports adjusted ROE of 10% or more for Q3 2026.
Worry ifOnity reports adjusted ROE below 10% for Q3 2026, or cuts its 10% to 15% range.
Why it matters: Onity used $5.8 million for buybacks in Q2. More purchases would show the program remains active.
Supportive ifOnity reports more share repurchases in Q3. Total purchases remain below the $20 million cap.
Worry ifOnity reports no Q3 repurchases. Or, it pauses or ends the program before reaching its $20 million cap.
Why it matters: Onity sold most reverse MSRs but kept a three-year servicing role. Reported fees can show whether that role adds steady income.
Watch forQ3 results show FAR subservicing revenue and no new costs or claims tied to the completed deal.
Also watch forOnity reports a FAR-related claim, a fee loss, or material costs tied to the deal.
Why it matters: Onity said $8 billion remained to transfer, with $4 billion subject to consents. Delays could leave its servicing base smaller.
Watch forOnity reports that the remaining $8 billion of Rithm servicing UPB transferred. This includes the $4 billion that needed consents.
Also watch forOnity reports that it did not get required consents. Or, it reports that some of the remaining $8 billion will not transfer.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,269 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Servicing UPB grew 10% from a year earlier in Q2. Another gain near that rate would support the growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 ending servicing UPB is at least 10% above Q3 2025, with positive net additions.
Worry ifQ3 ending servicing UPB growth falls below 10% year over year, or UPB declines from Q2's $341 billion.