Onity Group, Inc. (ONIT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.46+1.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONIT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 83.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ONIT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and the information in the related exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: ROE guidance shows how well Onity is growing and making money.
Watch forAdjusted ROE exceeds 10% in the next quarter.
Also watch forAdjusted ROE falls below 9% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show management's confidence. This may help the stock price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases shares totaling at least $10 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks happen. The program is either suspended or cut back.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Onity can make more money. They need to meet adjusted ROE guidance.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a return to making money. Adjusted ROE is within the 10% to 15% range.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations again. Adjusted ROE goes down further.
Why it matters: If growth drops below average, it may mean trouble for Onity.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above average. This shows the sector is strong.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,691 loss on $10,000 · 36.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks can signal management's confidence and support the stock price.
Supportive ifOnity buys back $20 million in shares as planned.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased or the program is suspended before the full amount is used.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Onity is doing now and in the future.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows worse results than expected. This means weak performance.
Why it matters: Completing this transaction will simplify Onity's business and focus on growth. It shows how well they can adapt to market changes.
Supportive ifThe transaction closes with net proceeds between $70 million and $80 million.
Worry ifThe transaction does not close or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: The share buyback program shows Onity's confidence in its future. It can support share price and investor sentiment.
Supportive ifOnity repurchases at least $10 million of shares by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases occur by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Adjusted ROE shows how well Onity uses its money. Meeting goals shows good management.
Watch forAdjusted ROE is at least 10% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted ROE falls below 9% in Q3 2026.