Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Onto Innovation (ONTO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$184.82-8.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.76 → 11.76 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONTO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful acquisition of 27% stake in Rigaku for $710 million | The company repurchased $205 million of shares and acquired a 27% stake in Rigaku for $710 million. | Recovered | acquisition delayed beyond 2026 or materially downsized | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented semiconductor equipment business, with recent growth led by advanced nodes and advanced packaging. The long-term thesis is intact and the signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but risk remains high and management execution is mixed overall.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to ONTO being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.95 premium to peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence does not support a firm read on how much future growth is already assumed.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 17.5% sequentially and 35.3% year over year, with advanced-node revenue up 50% sequentially and advanced packaging at an all-time high. Backlog exceeded $1 billion, while the planned Rigaku acquisition remains on track but is not yet complete; a guidance cut is a key near-term risk, despite the stated miss probability being low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in advanced nodes and packaging, and on completing and integrating the Rigaku investment. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term picture; easier interest rates or steadier results and guidance from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, strong recent execution keeps the thesis intact, but high risk, uncertain valuation signals, and sensitivity to guidance make the outlook conditional on continued delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Onto will purchase a 27% ownership stake in Rigaku for approximately $710 million with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2026.” ““By expanding our process control suite to include unique surface charge metrology through the Semilab USA acquisition and a broad portfolio of advanced X-ray technologies through our partnership with Rigaku, we strengthen our ability to address customers’ challenges of today, while collaborating with them to develop the solutions for tomorrow.””
Share repurchases of about $205 million in Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in Onto Innovation's published investment case. The stated target is repurchase ~$205 million shares. | Intact | repurchases fall significantly below $150 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 56% and operating margin near 18% in Q2 2026 | Profit margins stay near 56%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 50% or operating margin falls below 15% in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 39% in FY26 | A primary condition in Onto Innovation's published investment case. The stated target is >=38% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 35.3% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=38% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202635.304834 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Onto will purchase a 27% ownership stake in Rigaku for approximately $710 million with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2026.” ““By expanding our process control suite to include unique surface charge metrology through the Semilab USA acquisition and a broad portfolio of advanced X-ray technologies through our partnership with Rigaku, we strengthen our ability to address customers’ challenges of today, while collaborating with them to develop the solutions for tomorrow.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.76 → $11.76 · observed estimates
$1.65B → $1.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.76 | $1,654,082,081 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.76 | $1,654,083,899 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.34 | $1,848,727,196 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.34 | $1,848,727,196 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.34 | $1,848,727,196 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.65 | $1,868,429,669 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.69 | $1,873,924,414 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.69 | $1,873,924,414 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.76 | $1,881,375,323 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.76 | $1,881,375,323 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.76 | $1,881,375,323 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.77 | $1,882,738,959 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.77 | $1,882,739,868 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.76 | $1,881,376,232 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.76 | $1,881,376,232 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.76 | $1,881,376,232 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.76 | $1,881,376,232 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.76 | $1,881,376,232 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.76 | $1,882,178,213 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.76 | $1,882,144,879 | 8 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.