Onto Innovation (ONTO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$184.82-8.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 57.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
ONTO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-21
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Management guided to $380 million to $400 million for Q3. Results above $400 million would extend the recent sales surge.
Supportive ifOn November 9, Q3 revenue is reported above $400 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is reported below $380 million.
Why it matters: Management said backlog topped $1 billion and pointed to strong demand into 2027. Revenue reports can show whether orders turn into sales.
Watch forQuarterly revenue is at least the Q3 guidance high of $400 million. Management says backlog remains above $1 billion.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue falls below the Q3 guidance low of $380 million. Or management reports backlog below $1 billion.
Why it matters: The tech sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. Onto's first-half revenue growth was 22.1%, so later results can test whether growth holds.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is above 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue growth is below 22% year over year.
Why it matters: Onto completed its 27% Rigaku stake purchase on August 10. Future reports can show the stake's effect on earnings and cash use.
Watch forA company report gives income from the Rigaku stake. It shows this income adds to Onto's reported earnings.
Also watch forA company report shows a loss from the stake, or an added cash need tied to Rigaku.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$393 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $800 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,116 loss on $10,000 · 51.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.