Onto Innovation (ONTO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$268.01+6.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ONTO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-21
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: This buyback may help the stock price. It shows management believes in the company.
Supportive ifThe stock price goes up after the buyback announcement and when it happens.
Worry ifThe stock price goes down even with the buyback. This shows market doubts.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can help the stock price. They also show trust in the company.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks are announced or done after the notes offering.
Worry ifNo more share buybacks are announced after the notes offering.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and profit. No change may raise concerns.
Supportive ifOperating margin guidance for Q3 is over 22.4%.
Worry ifOperating margin guidance for Q3 falls below 21.4%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing after recent changes. Investors will look for signs of growth or challenges.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows if growth momentum continues after a strong Q2. It signals ongoing demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $400 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $380 million.
Why it matters: Updates show how well Onto manages its money. This helps reduce dilution for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more share buybacks beyond the first $205 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition shows Onto's growth plan. It also affects future earnings.
Supportive ifThe Rigaku purchase is done on time.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or problems with the acquisition.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Onto controls costs while increasing revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin meets or exceeds 57.8%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 57.3%.
Why it matters: This offering's success could help Onto grow and be more flexible financially.
Supportive ifThe company uses money from the notes for important projects.
Worry ifThe notes issuance leads to negative market reactions or financial strain.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$376 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $752 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,231 loss on $10,000 · 42.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.