Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OPAL Fuels, Inc. (OPAL)
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.48+1.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.86 → 0.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $102.5 million | Opal Fuels aims to reach $102.5 million EBITDA in 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $95 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OPAL is a high-risk growth and execution story in renewable natural gas, with some durable operating growth but no established earnings track record in the evidence provided. Its long-term thesis is under watch: production and Q2 adjusted EBITDA improved, while recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence says OPAL is cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that points to low market expectations; model confidence is medium. The evidence also reports low valuation fragility, but does not provide enough detail to describe exactly what the market assumes about future growth.
Near term, the elevated risk of an earnings miss and the August earnings miss make execution uncertain; full-year guidance attainment is not confirmed. Over the multi-year view, higher RNG production and Q2 adjusted EBITDA support management’s expansion priorities, but lower Q1 revenue and declining Fuel Station Services volume are counterweights. A CEO transition was reported in October, while management is rated stable.
The thesis hinges on OPAL meeting full-year guidance, growing adjusted EBITDA, and continuing to expand production at existing and new facilities. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. A lower interest-rate backdrop or stronger results and guidance from utility peers could support the sector setting, but those factors do not establish OPAL’s own execution.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OPAL has evidence of operating growth but also weak recent performance, high risk, and an unconfirmed path to guidance. The long-term thesis depends on sustained execution and improved results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in OPAL Fuels, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further dilutive capital actions in FY26. |
| Intact |
| New dilutive capital raises or dividend cuts in FY26 |
No new dilutive raises; dividend rate increased to 12.0% May 2026 amendment raised Series A-1 dividend to 12%; no new dilutive capital raises reported in FY26 evidence. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Meet full year revenue guidance for 2026 | A primary condition in OPAL Fuels, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Meet full year revenue guidance. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue: $83.399M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Meet full year revenue guidance. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202683,399,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Second quarter financial results were solid and in line with our expectations with adjusted EBITDA growth of 40% percent over the second quarter of last year," said Adam Comora, Co-Chief Executive Officer of OPAL Fuels.” “These results keep us on track to meet our annual guidance.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.19 → $0.27 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.19 | $421,709,860 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.03 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.19 | $421,709,860 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.19 | $421,709,860 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.03 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.03 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.03 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.11 | $421,709,860 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.53 | $422,054,317 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.87 | $416,575,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.87 | $416,575,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.87 | $416,575,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.87 | $416,575,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.87 | $416,575,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.87 | $410,825,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.87 | $408,344,250 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.86 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.27 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.27 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.27 | $407,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.27 | $405,362,750 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.