OPAL Fuels, Inc. (OPAL)
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.01+1.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
or the exhibit attached hereto. This Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are based on current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Further, the forward-looking statements are subject to the limitations listed in Exhibit 99.1 and in the other SEC reports of the Company, including that actual events or results may differ materially from tho…
Why it matters: Making money from tax credits can help with cash flow and growth. This is important for OPAL's finances.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement about making at least $100 million from tax credits.
Worry ifNo news on tax credit monetization or delays in the process.
Why it matters: Changes in rules can change the value of RNG credits. This affects overall profits.
Watch forNew rules raise the value of RIN or LCFS credits a lot.
Also watch forRegulatory changes lower the value of RIN or LCFS credits.
Why it matters: Higher RNG production growth means better expansion and improvements. This is important for long-term revenue.
Supportive ifRNG production growth reported at more than 4% YoY.
Worry ifRNG production growth falls below 2% YoY.
Why it matters: How OPAL spends its money can change its growth and profit plans.
Watch forA new capital allocation plan that helps growth is announced.
Also watch forNo news or negative updates about money spending plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$254 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $807 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,597 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady EBITDA growth shows good cost control and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA grows beyond $23.1 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls from the $23.1 million reported in Q2.
Why it matters: Smart use of money is key for OPAL's growth. It helps the company stay healthy.
Supportive ifThere will be news about successful refinancing or new tax credit efforts.
Worry ifThere may be problems securing financing or issues with tax credits.
Why it matters: Changes in the utility sector can affect OPAL's growth and stock performance. The sector is currently facing headwinds.
Worry ifSector performance improves, leading to a positive shift in OPAL's stock price.
Less concerning ifSector performance worsens, leading to a further decline in OPAL's stock price.
Why it matters: Achieving the EBITDA target is crucial for OPAL's growth plans. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for the next quarter meets or exceeds the target of $Y million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is much lower than the target.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals shows OPAL Fuels is on track for its yearly targets. It also shows the company can handle a mixed sector.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $83.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $80 million.
Why it matters: Using tax credits is key for cash flow and growth. It affects how money is spent.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about making money from some of the $100M in tax credits.
Worry ifThere are no updates about tax credit monetization. There are also no delays in the process.
Why it matters: Updates on new RNG projects could show OPAL's growth strategy is on track. This is crucial for long-term success.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new RNG projects adding capacity of at least 15 million GGEs.
Worry ifThere are no new updates about RNG project capacity growth.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA is a key measure of profitability. It will show if OPAL is on track.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds the target range of $95 million to $110 million for the year.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA is much lower than the target range. This shows financial problems.
Why it matters: If the utility sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit OPAL. This could improve its market position and investor outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows a positive trend.
Worry ifSector growth is flat or going down. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if OPAL Fuels meets its revenue guidance. This is key for growth.
Watch forRevenue meets or exceeds the full year guidance of $95 million to $110 million.
Also watch forRevenue falls short of the guidance range, indicating ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of OPAL's performance. A drop below 4% could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth comes in below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in capital use can affect future growth and investor trust. It shows what management cares about.
Watch forManagement shares a new plan for capital use. It includes investments in growth areas.
Also watch forManagement says there are no changes to the current capital use plan.
Why it matters: Progress towards the EBITDA target shows how well OPAL is managing costs and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached at least 75% of the Adjusted EBITDA goal for 2026.
Worry ifManagement says progress toward the EBITDA goal is below 40% for 2026.
Why it matters: More RNG production from new facilities can help grow revenue and increase margins.
Supportive ifRNG production from new facilities reaches at least 1 million MMBtu within the next quarter.
Worry ifRNG production from new facilities remains below 500,000 MMBtu in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable revenue would help management's plans. It shows the business is strong.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth stays the same or gets better than Q2's $83.4 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines further from Q2's $83.4 million.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects would increase production. This would help future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThey announced the status of new RNG facilities at Stones Throw and Grady Road.
Worry ifDelays or issues in the construction of the RNG facilities.