Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.98+13.79%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q2 2026 | Opendoor aims to break even on adjusted EBITDA by Q2 2026. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative beyond Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains on watch: recent results show progress toward management’s goals, but performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
OPEN is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the valuation evidence also points to a sizable premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, so the picture is mixed. The model has medium confidence, and no fragility gates fired; the evidence does not clearly show that the market already expects a successful turnaround.
Near term, revenue increased from $720 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $883 million in the second, while Adjusted Net Loss narrowed from $49 million to $30 million. Home purchases also rose, but positive Adjusted Net Income by the end of 2026 has not yet been demonstrated, and improving unit economics and resale speed remain watch items. Management transitions and the history of a deep miss add uncertainty, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in home acquisitions, better unit economics, and reaching positive Adjusted Net Income by the end of 2026. In the near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while weakness among sector peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OPEN’s case depends on turning recent operating progress into sustained profitability, with execution and sector conditions still important risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Opendoor Technologies Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations >= $0 by end of 2026. |
| Broken |
| Cash from operations remains negative beyond FY26 |
Cash from operations: $-718M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $0 by end of 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-718,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026 | Revenue is expected to grow 25% quarter-over-quarter from $720 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $883M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $900 million in Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 4, 2026883,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.21 → $-0.38 · observed estimates
$6.80B → $7.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.21 | $6,801,229,777 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.01 | $6,801,199,980 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.01 | $6,801,199,980 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.21 | $6,801,229,777 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.01 | $6,801,199,980 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.02 | $6,884,608,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.02 | $6,884,608,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.24 | $6,884,638,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.24 | $6,884,638,129 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.02 | $6,884,608,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.02 | $6,884,608,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.02 | $6,884,608,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.24 | $6,884,638,129 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.24 | $6,884,638,129 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $7,274,791,070 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.28 | $7,044,617,638 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.33 | $7,274,879,798 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.33 | $7,274,879,798 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.34 | $7,457,024,242 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.34 | $7,404,613,131 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.35 | $7,307,626,020 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.36 | $7,283,239,946 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.38 | $7,271,792,480 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.38 | $7,234,448,036 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.