Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.15+0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q2 2026: Adj EBITDA -0.17 vs 0.0.
Opendoor aims to break even on adjusted EBITDA by Q2 2026. Revenue is expected to grow 25% quarter-over-quarter from $720 million in Q1 2026. The company is improving management focus with new leadership and share buybacks. Analysts expect 44% revenue growth next year.
Opendoor is still loss-making with negative cash from operations of $246 million in Q1 2026. The path to breakeven is uncertain and revenue growth targets are not yet proven. Market conditions remain challenging for real estate services.
The stock trades about 56% below our fair value near $11, reflecting elevated risk. Analysts expect 44% revenue growth, which is priced in, but earnings remain negative and cash flow weak.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative beyond Q2 2026
Breaks if: Cash from operations remains negative beyond FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. OPEN is currently loss-making and faces elevated risks, but management is focused on achieving positive adjusted net income by the end of 2026 while scaling home acquisitions.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may have lower expectations for performance relative to industry standards.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, as recent financial performance has been below industry peers. Management is making progress on key priorities, but profitability has not yet been achieved.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to drive towards positive adjusted net income and the overall health of the Real Estate sector. Key factors include potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector bellwethers like CBRE and JLL.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Opendoor launched a mortgage lending service, which supports scaling home acquisitions. However, the latest earnings miss raises concerns about financial performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, OPEN's success will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.