Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.15+0.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPEN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 87.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPEN — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-19
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Why it matters: This growth would show that Opendoor is on track to improve its financial health. It would also confirm management's guidance and execution on scaling acquisitions.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Breakeven is important for Opendoor. It helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is at breakeven or better.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reported as a loss greater than $30 million.
Why it matters: The buyback can help the stock price and protect current shareholders.
Supportive ifThe stock price stays the same or goes up after the buyback news.
Worry ifStock price declines despite the share buyback announcement.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Opendoor. This would signal a healthier market environment.
Watch forSector revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is under 5% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $919 loss on $10,000 · 9.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,014 loss on $10,000 · 70.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Low aged inventory shows good management. It also means strong sales.
Supportive ifAged inventory reported at 10% or lower for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAged inventory is above 10% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If more homes are bought, it shows strong demand and good buying strategies. This also backs up management's growth story.
Supportive ifHomes purchased in Q3 2026 exceed 7,000.
Worry ifHomes purchased in Q3 2026 are below 7,000.
Why it matters: This margin range shows that Opendoor is still making money, even with market problems. It shows how well the company runs its operations.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 contribution margin lands between 4% and 4.5%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 contribution margin falls below 4%.
Why it matters: Good cash management is key for Opendoor's future. It shows how well they operate.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 cash from operations reported as less negative than -$246 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 cash from operations was worse than -$246 million. This shows cash management is getting worse.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted Net Income shows a strong chance for making money in the future.
Supportive ifOpendoor has positive Adjusted Net Income over the last twelve months.
Worry ifOpendoor fails to achieve positive Adjusted Net Income by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Opendoor is performing. It will show their finances and operations.
Watch forEarnings report shows good trends in revenue and EBITDA. This means they are performing well.
Also watch forEarnings report shows big losses or falling numbers. This suggests they are still struggling.
Why it matters: If Opendoor shows positive Adjusted Net Income, it means their plan is working. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifManagement says they have positive Adjusted Net Income over the past twelve months.
Worry ifManagement says they have negative Adjusted Net Income over the past twelve months.
Why it matters: More contracts for acquisitions show strong demand. This also shows good operational momentum.
Supportive ifAcquisition contracts are above 5,000 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAcquisition contracts are below 5,000 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Court cases may change how the company works and its money. This could affect future results.
Worry ifThe court case ends with a good result for the company.
Less concerning ifThe court case ends badly, causing problems for operations or finances.