Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OppFi, Inc. (OPFI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.27-1.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.93 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPFI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted net income between $153M and $160M in 2026 | It targets $153M to $160M adjusted net income. | Broken | Adjusted net income falls below $153M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OPFI is a financially oriented business with a cheap-versus-peers valuation, rather than a clear turnaround or low-risk compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact but cautious: momentum improved after fresh earnings, yet the latest report was still an earnings miss.
The evidence describes OPFI as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning current market expectations appear subdued relative to the valuation model. Pricing fragility is low, but that does not remove the risk that continued weak results or guidance could challenge the thesis.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 41% estimated miss probability make execution a key concern, even though the signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable after the latest results. Revenue fell from the first to the second quarter, while a new line of credit has launched without supplied evidence of customer adoption or financial impact. Share repurchases are progressing, but product expansion and the proposed bank acquisition have shown limited measurable delivery in the supplied evidence.
A guidance increase next quarter after the prior reduction would be a favorable sign that execution is stabilizing. The thesis also depends on whether product expansion and the proposed acquisition produce measurable results, and on how interest-rate conditions and broader financial-sector earnings develop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OPFI remains a watch-stage, cheap-versus-peers thesis with robust earnings quality but elevated execution risk. The main test is whether guidance and operating results recover enough to support the strategic plans. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in OppFi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain steady management and complete buybacks as planned. |
| Under Pressure |
| Management turnover or failure to execute buybacks and M&A |
M&A execution failed (BNCC deal withdrawn) Nov 3, 2026: OppFi withdrew bank regulatory approval applications for BNCCorp acquisition, halting core M&A growth objective. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $650M and $675M in 2026 | A primary condition in OppFi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $650M and <= $675M. | Broken | Revenue falls below $650M or above $675M in FY26 | Revenue: $145.17M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $650M and <= $675M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026145,170,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.19 → $1.60 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.19 | $789,991,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.19 | $790,081,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.19 | $790,081,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.19 | $790,165,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.92 | $715,313,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.91 | $708,938,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.91 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.93 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.92 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.92 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.92 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.92 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.92 | $704,546,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.92 | $703,520,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $692,264,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.75 | $683,755,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.75 | $683,755,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.75 | $683,755,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.75 | $683,755,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.75 | $683,755,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.60 | $650,156,250 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.