Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Oportun Financial Corp. (OPRT)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.01+29.58%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.95 → 1.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful leadership transition with new CEO Doug Bland | New CEO Doug Bland may improve execution and strategy. | Intact | CEO transition fails to stabilize leadership or causes further disruption | Qualitative: CEO transition stable, no disruption reported Q3 revenue beat, FY26 guidance issued, no negative executive change events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, execution-dependent financial business, not a durable compounder on the current evidence. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent performance remains well below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to OPRT being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.9 premium to peers. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions leave limited room for disappointment.
Near term, management is keeping expenses controlled and originations have edged up, but revenue is flat and annualized net charge-offs remain elevated despite a small recent improvement. Loss-making results, volatile management, and erratic earnings surprises keep the risk high; the next guidance update and second-half credit performance matter.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether OPRT can grow originations while improving credit performance and maintaining expense discipline. A guidance cut or weaker credit outcomes would weigh on the setup, while continued execution and strength among financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OPRT’s case depends on turning modest operating progress into better credit results and stronger financial performance. The evidence is mixed, and the long-term thesis remains high risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets a stable net charge-off rate near 11.9%. |
| Intact |
| Net charge-off rate exceeds 12.4% or falls below 11.4% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Given our second quarter performance and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are improving our annualized net charge-off range expectation by 20 basis points, and raising our full year Adjusted EBITDA range expectation by 6% at their respective midpoints.”” “Added Paul Appleton, Oportun's Interim Chief Financial Officer: “We expect to ramp originations from first quarter levels through the remainder of the year while maintaining credit discipline and reducing our loss rates.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve full year 2026 total revenue near $945 million | A primary condition in Oportun Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$945 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $935 million in FY26 | Revenue: $246.277M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$945 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026246,277,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.95 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $1.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.89 | $989,359,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.89 | $989,424,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.97 | $995,344,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.98 | $996,495,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.95 | $994,475,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.95 | $994,843,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.95 | $994,843,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.95 | $994,843,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.95 | $994,543,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.90 | $990,204,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.95 | $1,003,303,250 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.