Oportun Financial Corp. (OPRT)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.87+6.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPRT — business exit
Dated 2026-07-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 30, 2026, (the “Effective Date”) Oportun Financial Corporation (the “Company”) through its subsidiary, Oportun, Inc., (“Oportun”) entered into a Program Management Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Column National Association, a national banking association (“Column”), establishing a new lending program. Under the Agreement, Column will originate certain unsecured personal loans for consumers in select states. Oportun will provide the platform…
Why it matters: Slower growth in originations may show a tighter credit market. This can affect revenue.
Worry ifManagement says originations growth will be below 5% for all of 2026.
Less concerning ifManagement says originations growth will be 5% or higher for all of 2026.
Why it matters: The launch of this initiative could expand customer access and improve profitability. It is a key part of Oportun's growth strategy.
Supportive ifManagement says the risk-based pricing plan started well in Q3 2026.
Worry ifManagement delays the launch or shares bad news about the plan.
Why it matters: This range shows if Oportun can keep growing revenue despite tight credit.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported in Q3 2026 is within the range of $235M to $240M.
Worry ifTotal revenue is below $235M. This suggests possible growth challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Oportun's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $537 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,183 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower delinquency rate means better credit quality. It shows customers are paying back.
Supportive if30+ day delinquency rate in Q3 2026 is below 4.0%.
Worry if30+ day delinquency rate in Q3 2026 rises above 4.0%.
Why it matters: The new CEO can change company strategy. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forCEO Doug Bland announced new plans. These plans aim to improve performance.
Also watch forThere are ongoing problems or unclear plans under the new CEO.
Why it matters: The new CEO's leadership style could change company direction. Positive changes could improve performance.
Watch forThe new CEO announced positive changes. These changes help boost investor confidence.
Also watch forThere are ongoing operational problems. Negative news continues after the CEO change.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Oportun can maintain its growth momentum. A strong EBITDA indicates good financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $43M to $48M for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $43M for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A lower charge-off rate means better credit quality and risk management. This is key for Oportun's profits.
Supportive ifThe annualized net charge-off rate was below 11.0% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAnnualized net charge-off rate exceeds 11.0% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Originations growth is key for revenue. If growth continues, it supports Oportun's growth strategy.
Supportive ifOriginations grew in the mid-single digits for the full year 2026.
Worry ifOriginations growth was below mid-single digits for the full year 2026.