Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ormat Technologies (ORA)
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$94.28+0.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.44 → 2.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share maintained | The company keeps paying a $0.12 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.12 per share quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.12 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ORA is a utility with growth initiatives, rather than a clear turnaround or a pure high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with robust earnings quality and stable management, but recent company momentum has weakened.
ORA trades at a durable premium to peers, and the valuation evidence labels that premium justified. The expectations gap is modest, so the market appears to recognize the business’s strengths without pricing in a large additional upside assumption.
Near term, recent earnings beats and strong energy storage revenue growth support the business, though recent financial performance is neutral and momentum has fallen. Management is advancing geothermal projects and securing power contracts, but progress on both is mixed; recent earnings have also been erratic despite a low estimated miss risk.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on storage growth continuing and management converting geothermal work and new power agreements into lasting business progress. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility, while lower interest rates or continued strength from utility peers could support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but elevated risk and an expensive valuation make execution and guidance credibility important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “DIVIDEND On May 6, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared, approved, and authorized payment of a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share pursuant to the Company’s dividend policy.” “In addition, the Company expects to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share in each of the next two quarters.”
Continue advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) strategy | A supporting condition in Ormat Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing progress in EGS technology and commercial development. | Intact | EGS strategy progress stalls or reverses | Qualitative progress confirmed via 2026 revenue guidance of $1.15B-$1.2B and 2.6-2.8 GW target News shows strong EGS progress via AI pivot and raised guidance; one community challenge noted but not material to stall strategy. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Growth was driven by the high availability of our assets, which allowed us to capitalize on strong merchant pricing in the PJM market, as well as new portfolio capacity additions over the past 12 months.” “At the Desert Peak project with SLB, we completed geophysical data acquisition, updated the subsurface model, advanced permitting and procurement of long-lead materials, and entered the final stages of vendor selection ahead of planned drilling in the fourth quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Energy Storage revenue grows at least 150% YoY in Q1 2026 | Energy Storage sales rose 153% in Q1. | Broken | Energy Storage revenue growth falls below 100% YoY in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Upon completion, expected by the end of 2028, the project is anticipated to provide energy storage services under a 20-year tolling agreement with Clean Power Alliance.” “Our Energy Storage segment delivered another outstanding quarter, with revenues increasing nearly threefold year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue reaches about $1.135 billion in FY26 | Ormat grows revenue to about $1.14 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $960 million in FY26 | Revenue: $258.764M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.135 billion. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 2026258,764,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.53 → $2.43 · observed estimates
$1.17B → $1.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.53 | $1,167,501,127 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.53 | $1,167,501,127 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.53 | $1,167,501,127 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.53 | $1,167,501,127 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.52 | $1,175,373,270 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.53 | $1,167,501,127 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.52 | $1,180,433,220 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.49 | $1,172,037,593 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.51 | $1,175,898,365 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.51 | $1,175,898,365 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.51 | $1,175,898,365 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.51 | $1,175,898,365 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.51 | $1,184,388,202 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.45 | $1,166,424,092 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.45 | $1,166,424,092 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.45 | $1,166,424,092 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.45 | $1,166,424,092 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.45 | $1,165,350,392 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.44 | $1,159,610,348 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.45 | $1,159,605,911 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,915 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,915 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.44 | $1,154,443,942 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.44 | $1,154,489,397 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.44 | $1,154,529,795 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.43 | $1,153,892,060 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.