Origin Materials Inc (ORGN)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.950.00%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put ORGN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Primary pillar broken — Achieve Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2028: Adjusted EBITDA not reported.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 53% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 97% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskORGN's growth depends on achieving Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 2028. Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort, which raises concerns. Revenue trajectory has been weak, and the last quarter missed expectations significantly. The company trades at a multiple that is below typical for the sector. This suggests that the market may not fully reflect the risks involved. If ORGN misses again next quarter, the miss probability is 76%. Peer multiples imply a price about 0% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-23. ORGN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Continue this research
Compare ORGN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORGN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Diversified Chemicals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ORGN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Implement organizational realignment
Closures may hinder organizational realignment efforts.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-23. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.