Origin Materials Inc (ORGN)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.950.00%
Close 2026-07-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 81.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 156.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ORGN — officer change
Dated 2026-07-10
Director — John Bissell, Kathy Fish, John Hickox, Craig Rogerson, Jim Stephanou: The directors are stepping down in connection with the planned dissolution of the company.
Why it matters: The board approved a plan to liquidate and dissolve the company. Filings that show progress or a halt will clarify whether that plan is moving ahead.
Watch forA new filing or company notice reports a key step toward liquidation. This could include asset sales or a plan to distribute funds.
Also watch forA new filing or company notice says the board paused, changed, or ended the liquidation plan.
Why it matters: The company disclosed the preferred stock terms in July 2026. New filings can show how this stock affects cash and common shareholders.
Watch forA filing gives the Series A preferred stock amount and key terms. It also lists any conversion or payment details.
Also watch forA filing says the issuance was canceled, reduced, or changed from the terms disclosed in July 2026.
Why it matters: The company has cut staff to save cash and reduce its capital needs. More cuts may signal a deeper wind-down; a halt may show the plan has changed.
Watch forA company filing or notice confirms more job cuts or other changes tied to the liquidation plan.
Also watch forA company filing or notice says job cuts have stopped. It may also say the company is hiring to restart operations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$305 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $962 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,607 loss on $10,000 · 96.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.