Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Old Republic International (ORI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.39+1.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.29 → 3.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of Everett Cash Mutual Insurance Co. | A supporting condition in Old Republic International's published investment case. The stated target is acquisition closed by end of 2026-Q3. | Intact | acquisition not completed by end of 2026-Q3 | Acquisition closed (qualitative) vs target by 2026-Q3 June 30, 2026 filing confirms completion of ECM acquisition and conversion to stock company. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ORI is a mature Financials business with a value-oriented profile, rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: the valuation is cheap versus peers, but recent results have been weaker than its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to ORI being cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not suggest that strong execution is already fully assumed; however, the snapshot does not provide enough detail to quantify specific market expectations.
In the near term, consecutive earnings misses and erratic surprises create a risk of continued estimate pressure, although the assessed miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, premiums have grown and ECM's current-period results were accretive to operating earnings, but operating income declined year over year, leaving delivery on profitable growth mixed.
The thesis would weaken if ORI cuts guidance or if rate cuts weigh on the Financials sector. It would gain support if sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance. Over time, the key test is whether premium growth and ECM integration translate into stronger profitable operating results while balance-sheet strength is maintained.
ORI remains a cheap-versus-peers, watch-state long-term thesis, with growth evidence offset by earnings misses and mixed profitability. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on execution, guidance, and the sector rate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Old Republic International's published investment case. The stated target is shareholder returns >= $237.5M and debt issuance supports capital needs in 2026. |
| Intact |
| capital returns fall below $237.5M or liquidity weakens in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Specialty Insurance net premiums earned grow 6% with combined ratio near 95% | Profit margins in Specialty Insurance stay near 95%. | Broken | net premiums growth falls below 6% or combined ratio rises above 95% next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Title Insurance net premiums grow 6% with combined ratio near 100% | Title Insurance premiums rose 12% yearly. | Broken | net premiums growth falls below 6% or combined ratio rises above 100% next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.32 → $3.19 · observed estimates
$10.26B → $10.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.32 | $10,255,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.32 | $10,255,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.26 | $10,288,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.27 | $10,288,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.27 | $10,288,550,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.30 | $10,370,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.29 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.27 | $10,370,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.25 | $10,422,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.19 | $10,318,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.