Old Republic International (ORI)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.43-2.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ORI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 23, 2026, Old Republic International Corporation announced the results of its operations and its financial condition for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the earnings release is included as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change Old Republic's investment income and financial health. The next FOMC meeting is coming soon.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates, leading to an increase in net investment income in Q3.
Also watch forIf the FOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them, net investment income will drop.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use show how management will use its money. This affects growth and options.
Watch forManagement gives a clear update on capital use plans during the Q2 earnings call.
Also watch forNo big updates or changes to the capital use plans are given.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector revenue growth may show wider economic problems. This could affect ORI's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would grow Old Republic's Specialty Insurance segment. It fits with their growth plan.
Supportive ifThe deal for ECM closes successfully in early Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal fails to close because of regulatory or member approval problems.
Why it matters: A drop in net operating income may show bigger problems with making money. This is an important sign of how well the company is doing.
Worry ifNet operating income falls below $186 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet operating income stays the same or goes above $186 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows better efficiency and more revenue. This helps management's goal to boost operating income.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth is less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A big drop in net operating income shows ongoing problems in operations.
Worry ifQ3 net operating income falls more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet operating income remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Closing the ECM purchase could help Old Republic grow and earn more money. This matches management's goal to grow its specialty insurance area.
Supportive ifThe ECM Insurance Company purchase is done and included in Q3 results.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: Higher net income growth shows good plans and better work. This matches management's goal to increase net income.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful integration of ECM is key to realizing its expected $125 million gain. It shows how well Old Republic can expand its business.
Supportive ifManagement says integration is going well. They are meeting their planned goals.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with integration. This affects expected financial gains.
Why it matters: The combined ratio shows how profitable insurance companies are. A rise means worse performance.
Worry ifQ3 combined ratio is over 96%. This shows underwriting results are getting worse.
Less concerning ifThe combined ratio improves and stays below 95%. This shows better performance in underwriting.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,687 loss on $10,000 · 16.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.