Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.25+0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Oscar Health is improving fast. Revenue grew from $2.86B in 2025-Q2 to $4.65B in 2026-Q1. Operating income rose from -$230M to $704M in the same period. Management aims to reach profitability in 2026 and is on track.
Oscar Health is still loss-making and volatile. Membership growth is uncertain. Profitability depends on sustaining cost cuts and revenue growth, which may falter.
The market expects about 31% revenue growth and a turnaround to profitability. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting optimism on the turnaround. We see risk if growth or profits stall.
Breaks if: operating income remains negative through FY26
Continue initiatives to improve operating efficiency and reduce losses.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on achieving profitability and expanding its membership base. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that OSCR is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. The valuation has recently fallen, suggesting that investors may be cautious but not overly pessimistic about the company's future.
Management is on track to achieve profitability and improve operating efficiency, which should support continued strong performance. However, there is mixed progress in expanding the membership base, which could impact future growth.
The thesis hinges on the ability of OSCR to maintain its recent momentum and avoid negative surprises, especially in light of potential sector challenges. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 20.3 points (from 70.0 to 49.7).
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of profit guidance. This raises questions about achieving profitability in 2026.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: net income remains negative through FY26
Continue to drive profitability through improved underwriting, disciplined pricing, and operational efficiency to deliver positive earnings in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income improved from a loss of $228.4 million in 2025-Q2 to a profit of $361.8 million in 2026-Q2, and earnings from operations rose from a loss of $230.5 million to $388.6 million over the same period. Management is delivering on profitability with strong operating performance and raised guidance.
“Oscar delivered record profitability in the first half of the year and we are raising our full-year 2026 guidance.”
“We are reaffirming our guidance and remain on track to significantly expand margins and achieve meaningful profitability in 2026.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $12B in FY25
Grow the number of effectuated members in the individual market to increase revenue and market presence.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Effectuated membership grew significantly from about 2.0 million in 2025-Q1 and Q2 to approximately 3.2 million in 2026-Q1 and 3.0 million in 2026-Q2. Management's focus on expanding membership is reflected in strong growth in member counts.
“Effectuated members increased to 2,963,002 in 2026-Q2 from 2,027,148 in 2025-Q2.”
“Effectuated members were 3,174,489 in 2026-Q1 compared to 2,039,467 in 2025-Q1.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, OSCR's performance will likely depend on its execution of management priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.