Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.18-5.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.35 → 2.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OSCR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating income to positive levels | Operating income rose from -$230M to $704M in the same period. | Improving | operating income remains negative through FY26 | Operating income: $388.635M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $0 by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026388,635,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused health insurer moving toward sustained profitability, with recent results showing strong execution. The long-term thesis is intact, but management’s record is volatile and membership growth is mixed.
The evidence describes OSCR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear above the model’s baseline. The valuation reading rose recently, but priced-in fragility remains low and the current setup is tagged as justified.
Near term, profitability and cost efficiency have improved: the company moved from a quarterly loss to a profit, and its SG&A expense ratio declined. Management has raised guidance, but erratic and weakening earnings surprises and recent litigation filings remain risks to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining profitability and delivering on membership growth without reversing its raised guidance. A weaker jobs trend could add recession concerns, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OSCR’s long-term thesis rests on turning recent operating gains into durable profitability while managing membership and execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Oscar Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income >= $0 by FY26. |
| Improving |
| net income remains negative through FY26 |
Net income: $361.808M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $0 by FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026361,808,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Oscar delivered record profitability in the first half of the year and we are raising our full-year 2026 guidance,” said Mark Bertolini, CEO of Oscar Health.” “• Earnings from operations were $388.6 million for the second quarter of 2026 compared to a loss from operations of $230.5 million for the second quarter of 2025.” Operating income was $388.635 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near $12.1B in 2025 and beyond | A primary condition in Oscar Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $12B in FY25 and continue growth. | Intact | revenue falls below $12B in FY25 | Revenue: $4.88B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $12B in FY25 and continue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20264,880,220,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.51 → $2.39 · observed estimates
$19.78B → $20.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.51 | $19,779,408,170 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.51 | $19,779,408,170 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.51 | $19,779,408,170 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.51 | $19,779,408,170 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.51 | $19,866,995,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.57 | $19,778,677,290 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.57 | $19,778,677,290 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.56 | $19,866,397,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.56 | $19,866,397,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.57 | $19,778,677,290 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.57 | $19,778,677,290 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.56 | $19,866,397,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.56 | $19,866,397,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.56 | $19,866,397,324 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.66 | $19,976,589,470 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.66 | $19,976,589,470 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.84 | $19,914,479,800 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.56 | $19,866,399,510 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.90 | $20,264,197,291 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.90 | $20,290,218,300 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.90 | $20,290,218,300 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.90 | $20,290,218,300 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.90 | $20,290,218,300 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.35 | $20,777,264,793 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.35 | $20,777,264,793 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.35 | $20,777,264,793 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.35 | $20,777,264,793 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.35 | $20,777,264,793 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.35 | $20,777,267,884 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.39 | $20,766,519,604 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.39 | $20,865,122,165 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.