Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.25+0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSCR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 23.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSCR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-08
Regulation FD Disclosure. Oscar Health, Inc. (the “Company”) will participate in a fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (the “Conference”) on June 8, 2026 at approximately 11:20 AM ET. At the Conference, the Company plans to provide a business update and reaffirm its full year 2026 guidance, as previously provided in its financial results press release dated February 10, 2026. A live audio webcast will be available via the Investor Relations page of the…
Why it matters: Lawsuits could change Oscar's business and image. News may affect how investors feel.
Worry ifNews shows a solution or good result in the lawsuits.
Less concerning ifNew lawsuits or bad news on current cases come up.
Why it matters: New leadership could signal shifts in strategy and governance that impact growth.
Watch forSiddhartha Sankaran will announce new plans as Chair.
Also watch forNo new plans announced in three months after his appointment.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows more efficiency. This is key for making a profit.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income grows year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifOperating income declines or grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Lawsuits can affect money stability and reputation. Bad results may lower stock value.
Worry ifA good ruling or settlement that lowers legal risks for Oscar.
Less concerning ifA ruling against Oscar leads to large financial penalties.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$227 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $592 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,171 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key to Oscar's profitability goal. Slow growth may hurt plans.
Worry ifOscar reports membership growth above 5% year over year at the earnings call.
Less concerning ifMembership growth is reported below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: MLR affects how much money the company makes. A big rise could mean cost issues.
Worry ifMLR rises above 82.5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifMLR remains below 81.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates to earnings guidance will show if Oscar can make money by 2026.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 earnings forecast. It is now above $500 million to $700 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 earnings forecast. It is now below the current range.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth means more members and better operations. This helps Oscar grow its membership.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue exceeds $4.9 billion.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $4.7 billion.
Why it matters: Profit is very important. Confirmation would help show good financial progress.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm 2026 profit plans during the earnings call on August 5.
Worry ifManagement lowers or changes the 2026 profit plans.
Why it matters: Making money is very important. Progress shows financial health and builds investor trust.
Supportive ifOscar confirms it is on track to achieve profitability with a clear plan.
Worry ifManagement says there may be delays in reaching money-making goals.
Why it matters: Ongoing legal issues could affect Oscar's business and image. This may worry investors.
Worry ifLegal results are good and do not harm business.
Less concerning ifBad legal results cause business problems or higher costs.
Why it matters: A lower medical loss ratio shows better cost control and makes more money. This helps Oscar reach its goal of making money in 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 medical loss ratio improves to below 81.5%.
Worry ifMedical loss ratio stays above 82.5%.
Why it matters: A lower SG&A expense ratio shows improved cost management. This is key for Oscar's profitability goals.
Supportive ifQ3 SG&A expense ratio falls below 15.6%.
Worry ifSG&A expense ratio rises above 16.1%.
Why it matters: More members show Oscar is doing well in the market. This helps Oscar grow.
Supportive ifMembership exceeds 3.2 million by Q3.
Worry ifMembership goes down or stays under 3.0 million.