Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.18-5.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSCR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 30.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
OSCR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-16
Regulation FD Disclosure. As previously announced, Oscar Health, Inc. (the “Company” or “Oscar”) will host its 2026 Investor Day on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, beginning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. At the event, the Company will discuss its strategy and long-term financial targets. The Company will also discuss its financial performance and outlook, including the following improvements to its full year 2026 guidance: • Medical Loss Ratio between 81.0% and 82.0% (an improvement of 50 basis p…
Why it matters: The report can show whether Oscar keeps its updated profit outlook on track. The Q2 release cited favorable reserve changes as one earnings driver.
Watch forOscar reports Q3 earnings from operations at or above $250 million and keeps its 2026 range at $500 million–$700 million.
Also watch forOscar reports Q3 earnings from operations under $250 million. Or it cuts its 2026 range below $500 million.
Why it matters: Oscar's lower medical cost rate helped drive its earnings increase. A higher rate could weaken that result.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 medical loss ratio is above 82.5%, the top of Oscar's updated range.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 medical loss ratio is 82.5% or lower, within the updated range.
Why it matters: Oscar reported 3.0 million members in Q2, down from 3.2 million in Q1. More members can support revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe next reported member count is above 2,963,002, Oscar's Q2 2026 count.
Worry ifThe next reported member count is at or below 2,963,002.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $556 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,025 loss on $10,000 · 40.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.