OneSpan, Inc. (OSPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.70-0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers
OSPN — officer change
Dated 2026-06-05
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide specific details about the management change.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows OneSpan is on track for strong revenue growth in 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance confirmed in the earnings call at or above $244 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance falls below $244 million.
Why it matters: News about the $50M buyback program may show management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished a big part of the buyback.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Cybersecurity revenue is important for OneSpan's growth. It shows that the market needs it.
Supportive ifCybersecurity revenue either grows or stays the same after a 7% drop.
Worry ifCybersecurity revenue falls more than 7% from last year.
Why it matters: Good news can show how the acquisition helps OneSpan's products.
Supportive ifManagement talks about how well they integrated Build38 and its revenue.
Worry ifManagement talks about issues or delays with adding Build38.
Why it matters: Higher ARR expectations would show growth and trust in future revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says ARR will be higher than it is now.
Worry ifManagement does not change ARR expectations or lowers them.
Why it matters: If DigipassONE is adopted well, it can boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifGood customer feedback and adoption were seen within six months of launch.
Worry ifLow adoption rates or negative feedback reported within six months of launch.
Why it matters: Strong subscription growth shows high demand for OneSpan's services and products.
Supportive ifQ3 subscription revenue grew over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 subscription revenue growth is below 8% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means OneSpan is working better. They are making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA lands between $67 million and $71 million for the year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA stays below $64 million for the year.
Why it matters: High use of DigipassONE could increase revenue and strengthen its market position.
Watch forMany new contracts for DigipassONE were signed in Q3.
Also watch forThere was little customer interest or use of DigipassONE in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target means OneSpan is keeping and growing its customer base well.
Supportive ifARR reaches between $194 million and $198 million by year-end.
Worry ifARR remains below $194 million by year-end.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means the company is more efficient. This leads to more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $20 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is under $17 million.
Why it matters: A higher ARR guidance shows strong customer loyalty and growth chances.
Supportive ifARR guidance is revised upward to $198 million or more.
Worry ifARR guidance is maintained or lowered below $194 million.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show OneSpan is on track for growth. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for the year to over $252 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance for the year to under $248 million.
Why it matters: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth shows the health of OneSpan's subscription model. Strong growth can attract more investors.
Supportive ifARR increases to $194 million or higher.
Worry ifARR declines or stays below $189 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $417 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,644 loss on $10,000 · 36.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.