OneSpan, Inc. (OSPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.66-3.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSPN — officer change
Dated 2026-06-05
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide specific details about the management change.
Why it matters: OneSpan raised its 2026 revenue range after Q3 growth. A result above $254 million would show that growth held.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is above $254 million and within or above the $254 million to $258 million range.
Worry ifFull-year revenue is below $254 million, or OneSpan lowers its 2026 revenue range.
Why it matters: ARR grew 9% in Q3, and OneSpan raised its year-end range. The result tests whether recurring sales keep growing.
Supportive ifYear-end 2026 ARR is at least $197 million, the low end of OneSpan's new range.
Worry ifYear-end ARR is below $197 million, or OneSpan lowers its $197 million to $201 million range.
Why it matters: Digital Agreements grew 14% in Q3 after 25% in Q2. Growth above 10% would show the business kept expanding.
Supportive ifDigital Agreements revenue grows more than 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifDigital Agreements revenue growth is 10% or lower year over year in the next reported quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,239 loss on $10,000 · 22.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.