Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OraSure Technologies, Inc. (OSUR)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.37-9.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OSUR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 40% next quarter | The company targets gross margins near 40% in the same period. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 35% next quarter | Gross margin: 43.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40%. Target period ends 2026-03-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 202643.464212 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller healthcare diagnostics business with a growth-and-improvement thesis, rather than a proven, steadily profitable compounder. The multi-year view is intact, with management showing progress on revenue and margins, but the business remains loss-making and risk is elevated.
OSUR screens as cheap versus peers, while the pricing evidence is tagged as justified and shows no fragility flags. The expectations gap is negative, which points to subdued expectations, though the evidence does not specify exactly what the market assumes.
Near term, revenue and gross margin have improved sequentially, and diagnostics revenue was slightly higher year over year in the second quarter. Management has also reported new regulatory milestones, but progress is mixed, and consecutive earnings misses leave meaningful risk around the next report.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and keeping gross margin in the low-40% range while advancing new diagnostics. A guidance cut or weaker jobs data could add pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view is intact but uncertain: management is making operating progress, while losses and recent misses remain central concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in OraSure Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Clear path to commercialization established by end of 2026. |
| Improving |
| No progress on commercialization or M&A by end of 2026 |
Qualitative: Revenue beat by $1.58M; Profitability returned Aug 2026 revenue beat by $1.58M; Sep 2026 return to profit reported; M&A cooperation agreement signed in April. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth in diagnostics to about $28.5M next quarter | OraSure aims to grow revenue in diagnostics to about $28.5 million next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $27 million next quarter | Revenue: $30.639M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$28.5 million. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 7, 202630,639,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.50 → $-0.62 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.82 | $127,837,573 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.50 | $127,845,580 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.82 | $127,837,573 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.82 | $127,837,573 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.63 | $131,816,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.63 | $131,816,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.66 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.66 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.82 | $131,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.81 | $133,204,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.62 | $130,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.