OraSure Technologies, Inc. (OSUR)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.37-9.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
OSUR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
and attached as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information and Exhibit be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The fact that the information and Exhibit are being furnished should not be deemed an admission as to the materiali…
Why it matters: The kit lets patients collect urine at home for Roche STI tests. Sales would show whether this new clearance starts to add revenue.
Supportive ifA later company update reports Colli-Pee Dx sales or revenue from the Roche test use.
Worry ifA later company update reports no sales progress or a delay in bringing the kit to market.
Why it matters: OraSure withdrew its current filing after FDA feedback and plans a future submission. A new filing would mark progress toward a possible test launch.
Supportive ifOraSure announces that it has filed a new InteliQuick CT/NG submission with the FDA.
Worry ifOraSure reports that the new filing is delayed, or that it will not pursue another submission.
Why it matters: Gross margin rose to 43.5% in Q2 as management focused on better margins. A drop below 42% would reverse much of that progress.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin is below 42% in a later 2026 quarter.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin stays at or above 42% in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Management set Q3 revenue guidance at $29.5 million to $32.5 million. A result below the low end would weaken the recent growth story.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $29.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $29.5 million and within or above guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,822 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash fell from $177 million in Q1 to $161 million in Q2. Further declines would add pressure while the company reports operating losses.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents are below $140 million at a later quarter-end.
Less concerning ifCash stays at or above $150 million at the next reported quarter-end.
Why it matters: Core revenue was nearly flat year over year in Q2. Growth across core products would show broader strength beyond sequential gains.
Supportive ifCore revenue rises from a year earlier in a later 2026 quarter. Diagnostics revenue is also above the prior-year quarter.
Worry ifCore revenue falls year over year in the next reported quarter.