OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.40+0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OSW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OSW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue range shows the company is growing. It shows management believes in their results.
Supportive ifIn FY 2026, total revenues were between $1.018 billion and $1.038 billion.
Worry ifFY 2026 total revenues fall below $1.018 billion.
Why it matters: Reaching this revenue target shows growth and success. It shows management trusts their plan.
Supportive ifTotal revenues were above $1.018 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $1.018 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance of $1.014 to $1.034 billion shows the company is growing.
Supportive ifManagement will repeat the FY 2026 revenue guidance in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement has cut the revenue guidance for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to the company's health. A drop could signal trouble ahead.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median growth rate for the sector.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,364 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This range shows if the company can keep making money. Hitting this target means good cost control and strong sales.
Supportive ifFY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is between $130 million and $140 million.
Worry ifIn FY 2026, Adjusted EBITDA is less than $130 million.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show financial health and a promise to give back to shareholders. Keeping this dividend builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.05 per share is declared and paid.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: This range shows the company is doing well. It proves management's plans are working.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was between $35 million and $37 million.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was less than $35 million.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows growth is still strong. It matches what management said about their plans.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 total revenue reported within the range of $268 million to $273 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 total revenue falls below $268 million.