Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)
NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$80.00-4.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.22 → 5.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OTTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase dividend per share to about $0.58 in 2026-Q1 | Dividends rose to about 58 cents per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.53 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.58 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.58 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.5775 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OTTR is a regulated utility with a growth plan, but current evidence does not support a durable-compounder label. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence and recent results below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: OTTR is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap. Overall, the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a deeply discounted setup or unusually concentrated expectations.
Near term, results may remain uneven: electric retail sales grew in the first two quarters of 2026, but operating revenue fell in the second quarter amid timing and weather effects. Regulatory progress and growth initiatives are on track, while the recognized litigation expense and ongoing debt issuance add to execution and financing considerations.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether OTTR can turn regulatory progress and customer growth into steadier financial performance after lowered guidance. Near-term signals include guidance next quarter, interest-rate changes, and earnings and guidance trends among major utility peers.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OTTR’s case rests on improving execution and more consistent results, while recent performance and fragile earnings quality remain important risks. The evidence supports a watchful long-term thesis, not a clear resolution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Otter Tail Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.22 and <= $5.62. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.22 or above $5.62 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.41 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.22 and <= $5.62. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.41 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage impact of ongoing antitrust lawsuits | A primary condition in Otter Tail Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No material financial loss or settlement exceeding 5% of net income. | Intact | Material adverse legal settlement or judgment exceeding 5% of net income | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.32 → $5.22 · observed estimates
$1.36B → $1.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.37 | $1,357,175,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.37 | $1,357,175,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.37 | $1,357,175,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.32 | $1,357,175,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.44 | $1,367,250,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.44 | $1,367,350,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.22 | $1,352,200,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.