Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)
NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.79+0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OTTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OTTR — director transition
Dated 2026-09-01
Director — Thomas J. Webb: Two directors are retiring from the board in accordance with the company's standard retirement policy, which is a routine governance event rather than a sudden executive loss.
Why it matters: Completing the Vinyltech expansion will increase production. This will help future revenue grow.
Supportive ifThe Vinyltech expansion project is now complete.
Worry ifDelays in the Vinyltech expansion may happen. Missing production goals is also a concern.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows good cost management. It also means growth in core operations. This is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is over $85.237 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is below $85.237 million.
Why it matters: The case outcome could affect financial results and investor trust.
Worry ifA good ruling or settlement in the PVC Pipe Antitrust case.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling or more legal issues in the PVC Pipe Antitrust case.
Why it matters: Approval of the Minnesota rate case is crucial for revenue growth. It impacts the utility's financial health.
Supportive ifMinnesota rate case gets approved. New base rates are now in place.
Worry ifDelay or rejection of the Minnesota rate case may hurt revenue growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,082 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Raising the dividend shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the quarterly dividend per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend or a reduction in the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Ongoing antitrust lawsuits can hurt finances and investor feelings. Watch for updates.
Worry ifGood outcome or settlement in the antitrust lawsuit.
Less concerning ifNegative news or rulings in the antitrust lawsuit.
Why it matters: Maintaining the EPS guidance range shows the company is on track with its financial goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS lands within the guidance range of $5.22 to $5.62.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS falls outside the guidance range.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company plans to declare a dividend of more than $0.5775 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at or below $0.5775 per share.
Why it matters: Better sales in manufacturing can increase overall earnings. This shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifSales in manufacturing increase by more than 5% from last quarter.
Worry ifSales in manufacturing fall or stay the same.
Why it matters: The utilities sector is growing up. Faster revenue growth could help Otter Tail.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down or stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance range of $5.22 to $5.62 shows strong earnings stability. This impacts investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the 2026 diluted EPS guidance in the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the EPS guidance below $5.22 in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: The outcome of this lawsuit could impact Otter Tail's financial health and reputation. Investors need to know how serious the claims are.
Worry ifAny court ruling or settlement that hurts Otter Tail's finances.
Less concerning ifA ruling in favor of Otter Tail or a dismissal of the case.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending show management's plans. They affect the company's growth.
Watch forManagement says they will take on new long-term debt. This debt will be over $200 million.
Also watch forManagement says it will stop or cut back on spending and debt.
Why it matters: Changes in earnings guidance will signal management's view on future performance. It reflects how well they are managing ongoing challenges.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 earnings per share guidance to below $3.84.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises Q3 earnings per share guidance above $4.24.
Why it matters: Final approval would remove legal risks. This lets management focus on growth.
Supportive ifCourt grants final approval for the $103.5 million settlement in the PVC pipe litigation.
Worry ifThe court denies approval or delays the settlement. This keeps legal uncertainties going.
Why it matters: Sales growth rates show demand and performance in the Electric segment.
Watch forRetail MWh sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Also watch forRetail MWh sales growth falls below 2% year over year.