Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ouster, Inc. (OUST)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.54+15.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.01 → 0.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OUST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration and growth from Stereolabs acquisition | A supporting condition in Ouster, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Successful integration supporting revenue growth in next 4 quarters. | Improving | Acquisition fails to contribute to revenue growth or causes operational issues | Q4 rev $61M-$64M vs growth target Ouster beat Q3 revenue and guided Q4 to $61M-$64M, scaling REV8 capacity to 100k units by 2027. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue and shipments grew in the latest quarter, while the overall signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
OUST trades at a sizable premium to peers, which the evidence describes as justified by a durable premium, but model confidence is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting current expectations may be ahead of what the fundamentals support.
Near-term results have been weak relative to the industry, despite revenue rising 12% sequentially in 2026-Q2 and shipments increasing from over 12,600 to more than 17,000 units. Management is on track with priorities around growth, Rev8 OS commercialization, and Stereolabs integration, but the company remains loss-making and recent earnings have been erratic.
Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether shipment growth and Rev8 OS adoption translate into sustained revenue growth, while Stereolabs integration adds to the business. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing rates or steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis has signs of commercial progress, but losses, high risk, a peer valuation premium, and weak relative performance leave execution as the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improvement toward profitability and positive free cash flow |
| A primary condition in Ouster, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Reduce losses and improve free cash flow yield toward breakeven by FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS and free cash flow do not improve toward breakeven by FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $49.5M to $52.5M in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Ouster, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $49.5 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $49.5 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $59.325M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $49.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202659,325,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $0.01 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.04 | $296,433,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.15 | $297,971,429 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.01 | $297,814,286 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.