Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Owlet Inc (OWLT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.53+7.09%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.00 → 0.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OWLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $7M to $9M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow to $7 to $9 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.25 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Excluding $3.75 million in tariff refund impact, Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was $2.9 million.” “• Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $10.75 to $12.75 million, compared to our previous guidance of $7 to $9 million.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with improving operating performance, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with revenue growth on track and profitability progress visible, though the evidence is limited and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes OWLT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 39% premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap, which points to a mixed comparison. The model has low confidence, and no valuation fragility flags fired, so what the market assumes remains uncertain.
Near term, revenue guidance remains at 12% to 15% growth for 2026, and second-quarter revenue rose 29.9% year over year. Gross margin was 54.0% excluding the tariff refund, while adjusted EBITDA improved to positive $2.9 million excluding refunds; the full-year EBITDA target includes a one-time tariff refund. The near-term miss watch is quiet, but smaller-company risk and a deep prior miss warrant attention, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth and improved margins translating into sustained profitability, rather than results relying on one-time tariff refunds. Near term, reaffirmed guidance and execution against the EBITDA target matter; weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OWLT has a credible growth and margin-improvement story, but it remains a loss-making, high-risk business with mixed valuation signals and execution still to prove. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage debt and share buybacks prudently | A supporting condition in Owlet Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and execute buybacks without harming liquidity. | Intact | Debt levels rise unsustainably or buybacks impair liquidity | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve gross margins of 50% to 52% in 2026 | The company plans to improve gross margins to 50% to 52%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26 | Gross margin: 64.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 50% to 52%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202664.441163 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Overall gross margin was 54.0%, excluding $3.5 million in tariff refund impacts, increasing approximately 270 basis points year-over-year, primarily reflecting growth in revenue from our Owlet360 subscription service as well as favorable product mix and fixed cost absorption.” “• Gross Margin is expected to be in the range of 53% to 55%, compared to our previous guidance of 50% to 52%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue of $118M to $122M in 2026 | A primary condition in Owlet Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $118 million total revenue. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $103 million in FY26 | Revenue: $33.865M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $118 million total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202633,865,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial Results for the Second Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 was $33.9 million, compared to revenue in the second quarter of 2025 of $26.1 million, an increase of 29.9%.” “• Total Revenue is expected to be in the range of $118 to $122 million, unchanged from our previous guidance.” Revenue was $33.865 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.11 → $0.00 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.11 | $145,378,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.04 | $145,381,440 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.00 | $144,293,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.00 | $144,189,600 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.00 | $144,179,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.00 | $144,179,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.00 | $144,179,780 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.00 | $144,179,780 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.00 | $144,180,000 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.