Owlet Inc (OWLT)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.98-0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Owlet aims for 12% to 15% revenue growth in 2026, targeting $118 to $122 million. The company plans to improve gross margins to 50% to 52%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow to $7 to $9 million. New telehealth and subscription services could drive growth.
Revenue declined from $31.99 million in 2025-Q3 to $22.46 million in 2026-Q1. The company remains loss-making with negative free cash flow. Management has yet to deliver on margin and profitability targets.
The market expects about 23% revenue growth, roughly in line with management's 12% to 15% target. Our fair value is near $18, reflecting cautious optimism but also risks from current losses and execution.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.25 million in FY26
Continue to improve profitability with a target adjusted EBITDA range of $10.75 to $12.75 million for fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making but has shown some positive momentum in revenue growth and gross margins, although risks remain high.
The market appears to be pricing in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about OWLT's near-term performance. The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but there is a divergence in expectations.
Management has set ambitious targets for adjusted EBITDA and revenue growth, with recent results showing progress towards these goals. However, the company remains loss-making, and near-term risks, including potential guidance cuts, could impact performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain revenue growth and improve margins while navigating sector dynamics. Key factors include the performance of major healthcare peers and broader economic indicators like job reports.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Revenue growth of 12% to 15% in 2026 reinforces this improvement. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of $1.5 million in 2026-Q1 to a positive $2.9 million in 2026-Q2 excluding tariff refunds, with full-year guidance raised from $7-$9 million to $10.75-$12.75 million reflecting a one-time tariff refund. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the adjusted EBITDA target.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $10.75 to $12.75 million, compared to our previous guidance of $7 to $9 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $7 to $9 million, representing 250% to 350% growth over 2025, compared to previous guidance of $3 to $5 million.”
“We now fully expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable for full year 2025.”
Breaks if: Debt levels rise unsustainably or buybacks impair liquidity
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 48% in FY26
Target gross margin improvement to a range of 53% to 55% for fiscal year 2026, reflecting operational efficiencies and product mix.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved from 51.3% in 2025-Q2 to 64.4% in 2026-Q2 including a $3.5 million tariff refund; excluding the refund, margin was 54.0%, up 270 basis points year-over-year. The trajectory is on track with management's stated gross margin target of 53% to 55% for 2026.
“Gross Margin is expected to be in the range of 53% to 55%, compared to our previous guidance of 50% to 52%.”
“Gross margins of 50% to 52%, compared to previous guidance of 49% to 52%.”
“Gross margins in the range of 48% to 50% including the impact of new, increased tariff costs.”
Breaks if: Total revenue falls below $103 million in FY26
Overall, OWLT's trajectory is mixed, with some positive indicators but significant risks ahead. Not investment advice.