Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.38-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.35 → 2.90 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OXM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
capital expenditures reduced to $60 million | A primary condition in Oxford Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is capex <= $60M. | Intact | capex exceeds $60M in FY2026 | Capital expenditures: $8.765M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: capex <= $60M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 20268,765,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a branded-apparel business with a recovery-leaning but still fragile long-term thesis. Management is stable, and recent momentum has improved, though performance remains below its industry cohort and the thesis state is watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: OXM is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 32% premium versus peers, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says weak execution alone is reflected, not a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, profitability has improved, with operating income rising from $25 million in 2025-Q2 to $69 million in 2026-Q2, but fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was lowered from the prior-year $2.11 to $1.60-$2.00. Lower planned capital spending and stable gross margins show progress, while challenges in some brands and a recent earnings miss keep execution risk elevated.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would signal renewed execution trouble, while continued profitability progress would support the multi-year thesis. Sector signals also matter, since earnings and guidance from RL, LEVI, and VFC could either sustain or weaken the broader consumer-discretionary backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OXM’s thesis depends on turning improved profitability, lower capital spending, and supply-chain work into steadier results; recent earnings beats are encouraging, but the valuation and execution evidence remain mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital expenditures in fiscal 2026, including the $32 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, are expected to be approximately $60 million compared to $108 million in fiscal 2025.” “Capital expenditures in fiscal 2026, including the $23 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, are expected to be approximately $60 million compared to $108 million in fiscal 2025.”
net income improvement to positive territory | Oxford Industries is improving profitability with net income rising to $14.9M in Q1 2026. | Intact | net income falls below $14.9M in any quarter | Net income: $48.967M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > $14.9M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 202648,967,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EPS is now expected to be between $1.60 and $2.00, compared to fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.11.” “On an adjusted basis, operating income was $29 million, or 7.4% of net sales, compared to $28 million, or 7.0% of net sales, in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
revenue near $1.48 billion | A primary condition in Oxford Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $1.475B. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.475B in FY2026 | Revenue: $394.376M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $1.475B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 2026394,376,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.02 → $2.90 · observed estimates
$1.53B → $1.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.02 | $1,526,988,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.02 | $1,526,988,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.02 | $1,526,989,781 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.03 | $1,528,150,280 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.69 | $1,512,077,460 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.35 | $1,489,187,744 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.44 | $1,490,580,209 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.44 | $1,490,580,209 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.90 | $1,531,796,525 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.