Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.87-15.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OXM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OXM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 26, 2026, Oxford Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of S…
Why it matters: This spending level shows management wants to cut costs while finishing key projects.
Supportive ifCapital spending is at or below $60 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapex is more than $60 million. This may mean overspending or delays.
Why it matters: This guidance reflects management's outlook for sales performance. It shows how well the company is managing challenges in its brands.
Worry ifQ3 net sales reported within the guidance range of $280 million to $300 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales are under $280 million. This shows problems with brand performance.
Why it matters: Lower inventory levels can show better demand management. It also means better cost control.
Supportive ifInventory levels are down year over year. This shows good management and demand match.
Worry ifInventory levels are up year over year. This suggests possible overstock and demand issues.
Why it matters: Success is important for brand performance. It helps improve profits.
Supportive ifManagement reports better sales at Lilly Pulitzer. This shows their actions are working.
Worry ifSales at Lilly Pulitzer keep falling. This shows their actions are not working.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $532 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,735 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean improved cost control and pricing.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 62% for Q2.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 60% for Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it may signal a sector shift. This could hurt Oxford's performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: A gross margin below this level means costs are rising. This puts pressure on profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 60%.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains above 62%.
Why it matters: This new EPS guidance shows what management expects for profits. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported within the guidance range of $1.60 to $2.00.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS is below $1.60. This means profits are weaker than expected.
Why it matters: Lilly Pulitzer's performance has been weak. A recovery is crucial for overall growth.
Supportive ifLilly Pulitzer had good sales growth in Q2.
Worry ifLilly Pulitzer sales decline further in Q2.