Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.38-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OXM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
OXM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 29, 2026, Oxford Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a third amendment (the “Third Amendment”) to its $325 million Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated May 24, 2016 (the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company and its subsidiary, Tommy Bahama Group, Inc., as the borrowers, certain domestic subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors, the financial institutions party thereto as lenders, and Truist Bank, success…
Why it matters: Oxford cut its adjusted EPS range from $2.30–$2.70 to $1.60–$2.00. Results below the new low end would deepen the cut.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is below $1.60.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $2.00, the top of the current range.
Why it matters: Lilly sales fell 5.6% in Q2. Management plans more promotions to lift demand and clear slow stock.
Supportive ifQ3 Lilly Pulitzer sales are flat or higher than a year ago. Slow-moving inventory does not rise.
Worry ifQ3 Lilly Pulitzer sales fall more than 5.6% year over year, or management reports more slow stock.
Why it matters: The Q3 outlook calls for an adjusted loss of $1.20 to $1.40 per share. A smaller loss would beat that range.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted loss per share is less than $1.20.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted loss per share is greater than $1.40.
Why it matters: Oxford plans less capital spending than the $108 million spent last year. Lower spending can help cash flow as earnings face pressure.
Supportive ifOxford reports fiscal 2026 capital spending of $60 million or less.
Worry ifOxford raises its fiscal 2026 capital spending plan to more than $60 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $515 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,836 loss on $10,000 · 48.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tommy Bahama is Oxford's largest business. Its Q2 sales rose 0.8%. Management said comparable sales rose by a low single digit.
Supportive ifAt the next earnings report, Tommy Bahama sales at stores open a year or more remain above last year.
Worry ifTommy Bahama sales at stores open a year or more fall below last year.