Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
$53.57+3.66%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.57. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $52 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $48 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $57–$75. Note: our $48 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($57–$75). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $68.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $13.92 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $46.06 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $50.30 | 5.6 | 10.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$57.00 – $75.00 (median $68.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $47.99 |
| 13.5 |
| 3.54 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $39.63 | 16.5 | 2.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $37.73 | 1.8 | 20.97 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $7.95 | 3.3 | 2.40 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $33.92 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $49.99 | 20.8 | 2.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $43.06 | 16.5 | 2.61 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $14.31 | 16.5 | 0.87 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $14.88 | 13.5 | 1.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $77.88 | 16.5 | 4.72 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $52.19 | 1.8 | 29.01 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $15.61 | 3.3 | 4.72 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $98.24 | 20.8 | 4.72 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $28.41 | 16.5 | 1.72 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $6.82 | 13.5 | 0.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $96.24 | 16.5 | 5.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $64.50 | 1.8 | 35.85 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $19.29 | 3.3 | 5.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $121.40 | 20.8 | 5.83 | Analyst | medium |