Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.36-1.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.13 → 5.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OXY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance debt reduction and manage capital prudently | A supporting condition in Occidental Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is continue progress on debt repayment and limit capital spending. | Improving | capital spending exceeds $2 billion without debt reduction progress | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OXY is a cyclical energy company, with results influenced by conditions across the sector. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on debt reduction and cash flow, while recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence describes OXY as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and medium confidence in the valuation view. The current pricing is marked as justified rather than fragile, though execution quality is weak and the sector backdrop remains turbulent.
Management has reduced principal debt and free cash flow before working capital has improved, supporting progress on stated priorities. Recent earnings beats are a positive change, but recent financial performance is still rated weak, and guidance cuts would be a meaningful near-term concern.
The multi-year view depends in part on continued debt reduction and efficiency gains that support free cash flow growth. Near term, OXY’s setup also depends on its next guidance and whether energy-sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and guidance.
OXY has made measurable progress on debt and cash flow, but its long-term thesis remains watchful because recent performance lags its industry cohort and sector conditions can shift. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Occidental is cutting its debt, repaying $7.1 billion so far. |
| Intact |
| principal debt remains above $13.3 billion by end 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain EPS near or above $1.06 in Q2 2026 | It beat earnings with $1.06 EPS in Q1 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.31 in Q4 2026 | Diluted EPS: $2.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.06. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 20262.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 11% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Occidental Petroleum's published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth >= 11% YoY. | Improving | revenue growth falls below 7% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.94 → $5.09 · observed estimates
$23.85B → $25.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.94 | $23,847,463,170 | 20 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.73 | $23,887,566,125 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.96 | $23,847,463,170 | 21 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.96 | $23,847,463,170 | 21 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.96 | $23,847,463,170 | 21 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.93 | $23,845,040,660 | 22 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.78 | $23,774,334,366 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.74 | $23,777,594,607 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.74 | $23,777,594,607 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.74 | $23,777,594,607 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.93 | $23,469,674,510 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.93 | $23,469,674,510 | 22 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.91 | $23,694,340,190 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.91 | $23,694,311,440 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.93 | $23,860,401,650 | 21 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.93 | $23,860,401,650 | 21 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.94 | $24,183,474,470 | 21 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.67 | $23,682,002,673 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.83 | $23,816,757,961 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.83 | $23,816,757,961 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.83 | $23,816,757,961 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.82 | $23,816,757,961 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.82 | $23,816,757,961 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.85 | $23,823,624,628 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.85 | $23,850,410,344 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.85 | $23,888,965,948 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.85 | $23,888,965,948 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.85 | $23,888,965,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.85 | $23,888,965,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.86 | $23,888,965,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.88 | $23,888,965,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.90 | $23,888,965,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.94 | $23,948,948,448 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.00 | $24,103,823,448 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.00 | $24,103,823,448 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.00 | $24,103,823,448 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.02 | $24,078,823,448 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.02 | $24,078,823,448 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.02 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.03 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.03 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.03 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.03 | $24,078,810,948 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.08 | $24,203,417,573 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.08 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.13 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.14 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.14 | $24,237,663,010 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.55 | $24,880,847,072 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.76 | $25,301,115,321 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.76 | $25,301,115,321 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.76 | $25,459,807,471 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.76 | $25,459,807,471 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.89 | $25,642,028,189 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.96 | $25,730,539,300 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.04 | $25,868,023,537 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.04 | $25,868,023,537 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.09 | $25,963,080,182 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.09 | $25,963,080,182 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.09 | $25,963,080,182 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.09 | $25,963,080,182 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.09 | $25,950,937,315 | 16 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.