Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.36-1.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OXY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
OXY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-04
President and CEO — Vicki Hollub: Vicki Hollub is retiring as President and CEO, with Richard A. Jackson appointed to succeed her.
Why it matters: Debt fell to $11.8 billion by Q2, near management's $10 billion goal. More debt paydown would show progress on a stated priority.
Supportive ifA company update reports principal debt at or below $10.0 billion.
Worry ifA company update reports principal debt above $11.8 billion, with no stated path back to $10.0 billion.
Why it matters: Worldwide oil sold for $85.91 per barrel in Q3, close to the WTI index price. A weaker price could reduce cash from oil sales.
Worry ifA future report shows worldwide realized oil below $85.91 per barrel and below the WTI index price.
Less concerning ifA future report shows worldwide realized oil at or above $85.91 per barrel and at least 100% of the WTI index price.
Why it matters: Q3 production was within guidance despite Gulf downtime. The full report can show whether output met that range and whether lost barrels returned.
Watch forThe November 9 report shows Q3 production within guidance. It says Gulf output has returned as the pipeline limit eased.
Also watch forThe November 9 report shows Q3 production below guidance, or says Gulf output is still limited.
Why it matters: A full return would restore barrels lost to a third-party pipeline limit and maintenance. A longer outage would keep output lower.
Watch forThe next report shows Gulf of America output near its usual level. The pipeline limit is resolved.
Also watch forThe next report says the pipeline limit remains, or shows output still cut by a similar amount.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,763 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow before working capital reached $3.0 billion. Continued strength can support debt paydown and cash returns.
Supportive ifA future quarter reports free cash flow before working capital at or above $3.0 billion.
Worry ifA future quarter reports free cash flow before working capital below $0.7 billion, the Q2 2025 level.