Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$60.04-0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OXY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OXY — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-04
President and CEO — Vicki Hollub: Vicki Hollub is retiring as President and CEO, with Richard A. Jackson appointed to succeed her.
Why it matters: The new CEO's choices can change how well the company runs.
Watch forStrong operational numbers or cash flow with Richard Jackson in charge.
Also watch forWeak operational numbers or cash flow with Richard Jackson in charge.
Why it matters: A new CEO can shift company strategy. This could affect operations and investor sentiment.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear strategy that aligns with efficiency and growth.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to provide a clear strategy, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: Changes in pre-tax income show how well the company operates and market trends.
Watch forPre-tax income from oil and gas exceeds $1.0 billion in the next quarter.
Also watch forPre-tax income from oil and gas falls below $0.7 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower guidance could mean better cash flow. It may also show more efficient operations.
Supportive if2025 capital guidance is reduced by $200 million or more.
Worry ifCapital spending stays the same or goes up from current levels.
Why it matters: Cutting debt makes the balance sheet stronger. It also helps future growth plans.
Supportive ifOccidental reports reducing debt to $10 billion or below by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifDebt remains above $13 billion without significant reductions by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue growth can show shifts in the market. This affects Occidental's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up above 3% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth declines below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower realized prices could hurt revenue and cash flow generation.
Worry ifAverage oil prices were above $69.91 per barrel.
Less concerning ifAverage oil prices were below $69.91 per barrel.
Why it matters: Cutting capital spending shows careful use of money. It helps reduce debt.
Supportive ifQ2 capital spending was at least $200 million less than expected.
Worry ifQ2 capital spending stayed at or above the expected levels.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps pay down debt and keeps operations stable.
Supportive ifQ2 cash flow from operations was above $1.4 billion.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations was below $1.4 billion.
Why it matters: High oil prices help Occidental earn more money.
Supportive ifAverage WTI oil prices remain above $90 per barrel for the next quarter.
Worry ifAverage WTI oil prices fall below $80 per barrel for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Accelerating free cash flow growth shows that efficiency gains are working. This is key for future investments.
Supportive ifQ2 free cash flow growth exceeds 15% compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow growth is below 5% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow growth shows good operations. It helps pay down debt.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow before working capital exceeds $3 billion.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow before working capital falls below $2 billion.
Why it matters: Reducing debt makes finances stronger. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifPrincipal debt reduced to $10 billion or below.
Worry ifTotal debt is still over $11 billion. There has not been much repayment.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.28 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend per share from $0.28.
Why it matters: More production means stronger operations. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifIn Q3, production averages were over 1,450 Mboed.
Worry ifIn Q3, production averages were under 1,400 Mboed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,763 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.