Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bank OZK (OZK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$51.09-1.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.06 → 6.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OZK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
execute $200M share buyback plan and sustain dividend increases | The company supports shareholders with a $200 million buyback plan and a 2.6% dividend increase. | Intact | buyback plan is canceled or dividend is cut | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OZK is a financial-sector business with a thesis built on durable performance, rather than a turnaround. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent results that remain in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is neutral and risk is moderate.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap close to neutral. Valuation has eased recently, but the evidence describes the current pricing as justified and fragility as low.
Recent financial performance is strong, and the evidence says the reason for the thesis remains intact. Near-term miss risk is low, though a deep miss in the recent past and recent peer misses are cautions; the broader sector backdrop is neutral.
The near-term setup could weaken if the Fed starts cutting rates, since the evidence says Financials tend to do better when rates stay high. Sector momentum also depends on whether HDB, IBN, and USB keep beating earnings and guiding higher, or instead begin missing and guiding lower.
Over the next one to three years, OZK’s thesis rests on strong execution continuing despite an expensive valuation and moderate risk. The evidence supports an intact thesis, but provides only medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Bank OZK's published investment case. The stated target is no new credit rating downgrades. |
| Intact |
| another credit rating downgrade occurs |
No new credit rating downgrades reported News shows no credit rating downgrades. TD Cowen cut stock rating on credit concerns, but no actual credit rating downgrade occurred. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
maintain profit margins supporting EPS near $6.38 in FY27 | A primary condition in Bank OZK's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.38. | Intact | EPS falls below $5.50 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $1.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.38. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 30, 20261.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
achieve revenue growth near 83% next fiscal year | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 83% next year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 70% in FY27 | Revenue growth: -46.45% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=83% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 30, 2026-46.454086 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.24 → $6.06 · observed estimates
$1.83B → $1.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.24 | $1,831,548,330 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.20 | $1,821,907,150 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.20 | $1,821,907,150 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.20 | $1,826,417,509 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.20 | $1,821,907,150 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.11 | $1,811,071,050 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.11 | $1,811,071,050 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.11 | $1,811,071,050 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.11 | $1,811,071,050 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.11 | $1,811,071,050 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.08 | $1,812,596,532 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.07 | $1,807,825,932 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.03 | $1,803,703,710 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.03 | $1,801,396,888 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.03 | $1,802,898,665 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.03 | $1,802,898,665 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.03 | $1,802,898,665 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.04 | $1,808,134,228 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.04 | $1,808,134,228 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.04 | $1,808,134,228 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.04 | $1,808,978,673 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.04 | $1,808,978,673 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.04 | $1,808,978,673 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.04 | $1,808,978,673 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.04 | $1,808,978,673 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.06 | $1,814,712,931 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.04 | $1,817,032,959 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.02 | $1,818,092,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.02 | $1,816,392,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.02 | $1,816,392,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.02 | $1,816,392,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.02 | $1,816,392,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.07 | $1,826,303,784 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.07 | $1,826,303,784 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.07 | $1,826,303,784 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.07 | $1,827,970,450 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.06 | $1,825,492,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.06 | $1,825,492,672 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.06 | $1,825,492,672 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.06 | $1,825,492,672 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.06 | $1,825,492,672 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.