Bank OZK (OZK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.43+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OZK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 93.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 100.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: The unemployment rate affects consumer spending and loan demand. A rise could signal trouble for banks like OZK.
Worry ifThe unemployment rate goes over 5%. This suggests the economy may be weak.
Less concerning ifThe unemployment rate stays under 4.5%. This suggests the economy is stable.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts the economy and how well banks perform.
Watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth above 2%.
Also watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth below 2%.
Why it matters: An increase in unemployment claims could signal a weakening labor market. This may affect Bank OZK's loan performance.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims exceed 300,000 on June 18 or June 25, 2026.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims stay below 300,000.
Why it matters: A drop below the median would signal a slowdown in the growth phase for the sector.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth for Bank OZK falls below 15%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth stays above 15%.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can indicate economic weakness. This could affect Bank OZK's loan performance and credit quality.
Worry ifUnemployment claims go up a lot compared to last week.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: Retail sales show how much people are spending. A drop may mean a weaker economy for Bank OZK.
Worry ifThe Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 3% from last year on June 17, 2026.
Less concerning ifRetail sales growth stays at or above 3% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Consumer Price Index data can influence interest rates. This affects Bank OZK's lending margins.
Watch forCPI shows an increase above 0.3% month over month.
Also watch forCPI shows a decrease or increase below 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Bank OZK's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below the average of recent years. This shows a big slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, showing continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: The PPI affects inflation expectations and interest rates, which are crucial for banks like OZK.
Watch forPPI shows inflation is higher than expected. This may lead to rate hikes.
Also watch forPPI shows inflation is lower than expected. This eases concerns about rate hikes.
Why it matters: The CPI is a key measure of inflation. Changes can impact interest rates and bank margins.
Watch forCPI shows inflation is rising more than expected. This may lead to tighter policy.
Also watch forCPI shows inflation is lower than expected. This suggests a more relaxed policy.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,904 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.