Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.55+4.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PACB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improves to at least $12.8M in 2026-Q1 | PacBio is improving its gross profit, reaching $12.8M in Q1 2026 from a loss last year. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $10M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Gross profit: $12.638M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202612,638,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue guidance is on track, but management execution is volatile and recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
PACB is valued at a premium to peers, with the evidence pointing to expectations for a re-rating, or a change in how the market values the company. The expectations gap is notable, but confidence in the valuation model is low, so the size of that gap is uncertain.
Near term, revenue has grown modestly, and management reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance. Cost reductions are early stage; second-quarter operating expenses rose due to restructuring and settlement charges, while commercial rollout of SPRQ-Nx and Revio placements is progressing but bears watching. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and weaker employment data could add pressure through recession concerns.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on meeting revenue guidance, delivering the planned operating-cost reductions, and expanding commercial adoption of SPRQ-Nx and Revio. Healthcare sector momentum could help near term if bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while weaker jobs data or lower guidance would weigh on the business outlook.
PACB has some evidence of revenue and rollout progress, but persistent losses, volatile execution, and premium peer valuation leave the multi-year thesis dependent on delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stable management team with no major departures |
| A supporting condition in Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No unexpected key executive departures in next 12 months. |
| Under Pressure |
| Departure of CEO or CFO within next 12 months |
CEO & CFO departed vs no unexpected departures News confirms Mark Van Oene replaced Christian Henry as CEO; filings show CFO Gibson transitioned to advisory role with interim successor. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $170M in FY26 | A primary condition in Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$170M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $160M in FY26 | Revenue: $39.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$170M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202639,007,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.47 → $-0.45 · observed estimates
$0.19B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.47 | $193,750,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.47 | $194,063,900 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.39 | $194,280,570 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.41 | $187,497,680 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.41 | $187,497,680 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.41 | $187,497,680 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.40 | $187,497,680 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.47 | $194,131,383 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.47 | $182,497,683 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.45 | $183,033,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.46 | $182,433,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.46 | $182,433,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.46 | $182,433,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.46 | $182,433,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.46 | $182,433,765 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.46 | $182,435,751 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.46 | $182,145,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.45 | $185,945,394 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.45 | $185,951,379 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.45 | $185,988,251 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.45 | $185,988,251 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.45 | $185,988,251 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.45 | $185,988,251 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.45 | $185,986,265 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.