Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.35+3.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PACB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PACB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
President and CEO — Mark Van Oene: Mark Van Oene was appointed as the President and CEO, succeeding Christian Henry.
Why it matters: Cutting operating losses is important. It helps finances and builds investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating losses are below $8 million in Q2 2026. This shows a positive trend.
Worry ifOperating losses are at or above $8 million. This suggests ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Cutting losses shows the company is working better. This is key for lasting success.
Supportive ifOperating losses decrease further from -$8.36M in 2026-Q1.
Worry ifOperating losses increase or stay the same.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into revenue and margin progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong revenue and margin improvements.
Also watch forThe earnings report has weak results.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is important. It helps improve financial health and cut losses.
Supportive ifOperating expenses are below $56 million in upcoming quarters. This shows cost control.
Worry ifOperating expenses are still above $56 million. This shows slow progress in cutting costs.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance is key to achieving the full-year target of $165M to $175M.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue is $41.8 million or more. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is less than $41.8 million. This shows challenges in meeting goals.
Why it matters: Cutting operating costs is key. It helps improve profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifOperating expenses decrease by at least $5 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase or stay the same in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower operating losses mean better cost control. This can make investors more positive.
Supportive ifOperating losses decrease by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating losses increase or stay the same.
Why it matters: Achieving the revenue target of $165M to $175M is key for investor confidence. It shows the company's growth potential.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $41.25 million, which is the midpoint of the guidance range.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is below $37.5 million. This shows growth expectations were not met.
Why it matters: Better gross margins are key for making more money long-term. They show good cost control.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin improves to above 36% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin drops below 32%.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target shows progress toward the full-year guidance of $165M to $175M.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $39 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $39 million.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifGross margin improves from 32% in Q2 to above 35% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 32% in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on this rollout may mean more money from new products.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of sales growth from SPRQ-Nx in Q3.
Worry ifNo updates or negative feedback on SPRQ-Nx rollout in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change how a company operates. This can affect how much investors trust the company.
Watch forNew strategic initiatives announced by the new CEO Mark Van Oene.
Also watch forThere are ongoing issues or negative news about the company's leaders.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$318 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $837 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,843 loss on $10,000 · 58.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.