Penske Automotive Group (PAG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$219.77+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $220 PAG trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median — but our blended $182 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $167–$225. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $234 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $201.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $240.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $79.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $159.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$167.00 – $225.00 (median $210.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-19
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $144.91 |
| 16.1 |
| 9.01 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $216.92 | 15.3 | 14.21 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $397.65 | 0.8 | 484.39 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $223.34 | 17.5 | 12.75 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $113.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $173.77 | 13.6 | 12.75 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $197.51 | 15.1 | 13.07 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $100.42 | 16.1 | 6.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $248.14 | 15.3 | 16.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $447.42 | 0.8 | 545.02 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $284.72 | 17.5 | 16.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $221.53 | 13.6 | 16.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $78.64 | 16.1 | 4.89 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $267.93 | 15.3 | 17.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $483.11 | 0.8 | 588.49 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $307.43 | 17.5 | 17.55 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $239.20 | 13.6 | 17.55 | Analyst | medium |