Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Penske Automotive Group (PAG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$212.30+0.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.50 → 14.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PAG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend per share | It keeps raising its dividend, now $1.42 per share quarterly. | Intact | dividend cut or fails to increase next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PAG is a dealership and service business with an acquisition component, rather than a pure growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by service and parts growth, but recent results have weakened momentum and management delivery is mixed.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with PAG trading at a modest premium to peers and expectations somewhat above the model view. Fragility is rated low, so the evidence does not point to a broad stack of valuation and execution risks already embedded in expectations.
Near term, the October earnings miss and a 15.3-point drop in company momentum raise execution concerns, although the stated miss probability is low. Across the latest three quarters, same-store service and parts revenue grew, and Q3 gross profit in that area also increased; the proposed take-private transaction has no reported closing milestone yet.
The multi-year view depends partly on sustained growth in service and parts and on completing the proposed take-private transaction. Near term, guidance is a key swing factor: a cut would be a negative signal, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop for PAG.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PAG’s thesis remains intact but faces a more cautious near-term setup after the earnings miss. Continued service and parts progress, transaction execution, and guidance will matter most. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Penske Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain profit margins near current levels. |
| Intact |
| profit margins decline more than 5% from current levels |
Operating margin: 3.6% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 29, 20263.601645 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Same-store service and parts revenue growth | Penske Automotive grows service and parts revenue about 5% a year. | Intact | growth falls below 3% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.08 → $14.13 · observed estimates
$33.28B → $33.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.08 | $33,283,242,580 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.08 | $33,282,005,340 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.48 | $33,291,227,651 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.48 | $33,291,227,651 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.13 | $33,590,743,649 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.47 | $33,528,726,164 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.47 | $33,528,726,164 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.13 | $33,590,743,649 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.13 | $33,590,743,649 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.13 | $33,720,522,660 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.13 | $33,720,522,660 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.13 | $33,720,522,660 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.45 | $33,612,158,761 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.53 | $33,796,913,949 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.53 | $33,796,913,949 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.53 | $33,796,913,949 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.50 | $33,499,287,029 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.30 | $33,501,366,916 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.16 | $33,492,033,843 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.05 | $33,546,076,234 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.01 | $33,495,453,388 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.07 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.07 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.07 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.07 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.13 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.13 | $33,480,262,138 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.