Penske Automotive Group (PAG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$219.77+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAG — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. On July 23, 2026, we issued a press release announcing that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.44 per share, payable on September 1, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 14, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The dividend shows financial health. It shows management cares about giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $1.44 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend decrease or no increase.
Why it matters: Completing these deals adds significant revenue. It shows management's growth strategy in action.
Supportive ifThey announced they bought Lexus of Orlando and Lexus of Winter Park.
Worry ifThere is no news about completion or delays in the acquisition process.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend goes up again, now over $1.44 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend stays at $1.44 per share or goes down. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in consumer spending. This is important for Penske's outlook.
Worry ifPenske's revenue growth reported below the sector median of 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifPenske's revenue growth remains above the sector median of 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,380 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could greatly increase revenue. This fits with management's growth plans.
Supportive ifNew dealership acquisitions may bring in over $450 million each year.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced. This may mean slower growth.
Why it matters: Class 8 truck orders signal demand in the commercial truck sector. This affects overall revenue and growth.
Supportive ifClass 8 truck orders increase by more than 20% year over year.
Worry ifClass 8 truck orders decline or remain flat year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in service and parts revenue shows strong performance and high customer demand.
Supportive ifService and parts revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifService and parts revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can increase revenue and market presence. This fits with management's growth plans.
Supportive ifA new dealership acquisition is expected to bring in a lot of revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management trusts the cash flow. A steady dividend can attract investors.
Supportive ifManagement might announce a new dividend increase. They could also keep the current dividend after June 3.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend or suspends it after June 3.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend payout is a key priority for the company. A change could signal financial health.
Worry ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend equal to or greater than $1.42 per share.
Less concerning ifThe Board reduces the dividend payout below $1.42 per share.
Why it matters: Retail automotive revenue growth is key for making money and keeping investor trust. A drop could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifQ3 retail automotive revenue growth turns negative year over year.
Less concerning ifRetail automotive revenue growth in Q3 is still positive compared to last year.
Why it matters: Changes in the Producer Price Index can affect vehicle pricing and consumer demand. This could impact PAG's revenue.
Worry ifPPI data shows a big increase. This leads to higher vehicle prices.
Less concerning ifPPI data shows a decrease or stays the same. This helps consumer buying power.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company's financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders. Missing a payment would raise worries.
Watch forThe dividend of $1.44 per share is paid as scheduled.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: The proposal could change the ownership structure and future strategy of PAG. Investors are keen on how this affects share value and operations.
Watch forAn agreement is reached on the take-private proposal at or above $210 per share.
Also watch forThe Board has withdrawn or rejected the proposal. There are no further developments.