Penske Automotive Group (PAG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$212.30+0.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our third quarter 2026 financial results and other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The $212-per-share cash deal depends on shareholder votes and regulatory clearance. A delay or failed vote could block the take-private deal.
Watch forShareholders who are not tied to the deal approve it. Required regulators approve it, and the merger closes by the end of Q1 2027.
Also watch forShareholders reject the deal, a required approval is denied, or the merger agreement ends. The deal closes after Q1 2027.
Why it matters: The announced $1.46 dividend is due before the planned deal close. A change to the payment or deal terms could affect this cash payment.
Watch forPAG pays $1.46 per share on December 1 to holders of record on November 13, with no announced change.
Also watch forPAG changes, delays, or cancels the $1.46 dividend, or the deal closes before the stated payment date.
Why it matters: Both measures fell from Q2 to Q3. More declines would point to weaker profit per vehicle sold.
Worry ifNew or used vehicle gross profit per unit falls again from Q3 levels in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifBoth new and used vehicle gross profit per unit rise from Q3 levels in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,998 loss on $10,000 · 20.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.