Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Phibro Animal Health (PAHC)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.40-10.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.84 → 3.85 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PAHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend stays at $0.12 per share | A supporting condition in Phibro Animal Health's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain $0.12 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.12 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Maintain $0.12 quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PAHC is a growth-and-execution story in a healthcare business, with recent results supporting a multi-year view rather than a turnaround thesis. The thesis is intact, and the evidence points to robust earnings quality and strong recent performance, but risk remains elevated.
The valuation evidence describes PAHC as cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s view. Pricing appears justified, and no warning signs of fragile expectations were flagged. The evidence does not specify what earnings assumptions the market already holds.
Near term, revenue growth and margin improvement have support from execution: latest-quarter net sales rose 5%, while operating income increased from the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA rose 39% for fiscal 2026, and management’s stated priorities are on track. Risk remains elevated because the industry has a high rate of earnings misses and PAHC has had a deep miss in its recent history.
The multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth and operating improvement, alongside management maintaining credibility after raising guidance. A guidance reversal would be a serious negative signal. A weakening jobs report could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PAHC’s thesis rests on sustaining recent operating progress, with cheap relative valuation balanced against elevated execution and economic risks. The evidence supports an intact thesis, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income grows at least 10% annually |
| A primary condition in Phibro Animal Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY operating income growth. |
| Intact |
| Operating income growth falls below 10% next year |
Operating income: $49.639M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY operating income growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202649,639,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage Brazil antimicrobial regulation with limited impact | A supporting condition in Phibro Animal Health's published investment case. The stated target is Limited fiscal 2026 impact from Brazil regulation. | Intact | Brazil regulation causes more than minor sales decline in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to work toward the regulatory approvals necessary to make therapeutic claims for virginiamycin in Brazil, and with the election now behind us, we are optimistic that progress on those approvals may be forthcoming.” “Our fiscal 2027 guidance continues to assume no additional virginiamycin sales in Brazil for the remainder of the fiscal year, so any approval would represent potential upside.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net sales grow at least 3% annually | A primary condition in Phibro Animal Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 6.29% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20266.287837 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, we expect continued growth across our businesses.” “Net sales of MFAs and other increased $24.1 million, or 13%, due to an $18.9 million increase in the sales of products from the MFA portfolio acquired on October 31, 2024, increased demand for certain of our legacy MFAs in North America and for certain anti-microbials sold by our ethanol performance business.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.68 → $3.85 · observed estimates
$1.60B → $1.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.68 | $1,599,378,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.64 | $1,598,128,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.64 | $1,598,128,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.64 | $1,598,128,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.64 | $1,598,128,988 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.85 | $1,631,724,518 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.84 | $1,631,305,699 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.85 | $1,632,289,383 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.