Phibro Animal Health (PAHC)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.25-0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PAHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PAHC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-28
OTHER EVENTS On July 28, 2026, Phibro Animal Health Corporation issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its Class A common stock and Class B common stock, payable on September 23, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on September 2, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Rising SG&A could pressure margins. Stabilization or decline would support operating income growth.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses show no increase or decrease over the next quarter.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This shows good operations and strong sales in Animal Health. It helps management's goals.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA reaches $60 million or more.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is less than $55 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income is important for financial health. A slowdown may mean rising costs or lower sales.
Worry ifOperating income growth below 30% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth at or above 30% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand in the Animal Health segment.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,231 loss on $10,000 · 52.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will show how the company is doing financially. It will affect investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth of over 15% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income growth of less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if Phibro can maintain its revenue growth trend.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales exceed $1.46 billion, confirming growth trends.
Worry ifQ4 net sales drop below $1.46 billion. This shows possible revenue problems.
Why it matters: The closure may hurt production efficiency and raise costs. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifPost-closure, operations may run better. There will be no big supply disruptions.
Less concerning ifThe closure of the Chicago Heights facility may cause delays or higher costs.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders. Changes may mean financial trouble.
Watch forQuarterly dividend remains at $0.12 per share in the next declaration.
Also watch forDividend is cut or suspended in the next declaration.
Why it matters: Lower EBITDA guidance may show problems in keeping profits with rising costs.
Worry ifEBITDA guidance is cut to below $247 million.
Less concerning ifEBITDA guidance is kept the same or raised above $255 million.
Why it matters: Changes in SG&A can change operating income and profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses increase less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in rules could affect product sales in an important market.
Watch forManagement says the rule changes in Brazil will not have a big impact.
Also watch forManagement says the rule changes will hurt sales in Brazil.
Why it matters: Sustaining sales growth is key for Phibro's revenue targets. Strong growth would confirm ongoing demand.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 net sales growth exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ1 2027 net sales growth falls below 5% year-over-year.