NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $337.04. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $337, PANW's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 25× p/s (5.4× the 4.7× p/s peer median, and 1.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~23% near-term growth vs our ~28% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $273 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $215–$425. Not investment advice.
$215.00 – $425.00 (median $320.00) · 44 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1008% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 12.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.60/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $320.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $178.99 | 47.4 | 3.78 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $37.13 | 21.4 | 1.68 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $128.88 | 27.1 | 4.75 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $152.95 | 47.4 | 3.23 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $61.92 | 4.7 | 13.24 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $293.09 | 90.7 | 3.23 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $159.66 | 47.4 | 3.37 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $43.15 | 47.4 | 0.91 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $179.09 | 27.1 | 6.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $36.87 | 47.4 | 0.78 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $86.69 | 4.7 | 18.54 | guidance | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $70.65 | 90.7 | 0.78 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $223.02 | 27.1 | 8.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $100.50 | 4.7 | 21.49 | guidance | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
