Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$314.67-9.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.87 → 4.86 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PANW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance of $3.77 to $3.79 for FY 2026 | A primary condition in Palo Alto Networks's published investment case. The stated target is $3.77 to $3.79 EPS. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $3.50 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.35 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: $3.77 to $3.79 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 2026-0.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented security business with robust earnings quality and strong growth in its next-generation security offerings. The long-term thesis is intact, though the recent signal has turned cautious and the evidence snapshot has medium confidence.
PANW is valued at a premium to peers, with an expectations gap tied to optionality, or value investors assign to possible future opportunities. The premium is not accompanied by the broader combination of weak fundamentals and turbulent conditions, but expensive valuation still raises the bar for execution.
Near term, the business has shown strong growth: Q4 FY2026 revenue was up 34% year over year, and Next-Generation Security ARR was up 63%. Adjusted free cash flow margin reached 38.4% in FY2026, while the 40% FY2028 objective remains ahead; the main near-term watch is guidance, especially after a recent earnings miss and a later earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth in revenue and Next-Generation Security ARR, and on progress toward the FY2028 free cash flow margin objective. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
PANW’s long-term thesis remains intact, backed by strong security growth, but the recent shift to a cautious signal and expensive valuation make execution and guidance important over the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow remains strong near 38%. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow yield falls below 30% in FY 2026 |
Free cash flow yield: 1.51% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20261.51 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 29.75% in FY 2026 | Profit margins stay near 30%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 25% in FY 2026 | Operating margin: 5.04% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~29.75% operating margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20265.043988 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 22% to 23% for FY 2026 | A primary condition in Palo Alto Networks's published investment case. The stated target is 22% to 23% YoY growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY 2026 | Revenue growth: 34.45% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 22% to 23% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 202634.447818 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.84 → $4.86 · observed estimates
$15.78B → $16.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.84 | $15,782,374,559 | 12 / 35 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.83 | $15,803,084,855 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.83 | $15,803,084,855 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.83 | $15,803,084,855 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.83 | $15,803,084,855 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.83 | $15,803,084,855 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.83 | $15,803,116,655 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.83 | $15,803,111,501 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.83 | $15,803,111,501 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.83 | $15,803,111,501 | 12 / 36 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.81 | $15,793,479,501 | 12 / 37 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.81 | $15,793,479,501 | 12 / 37 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.81 | $15,793,479,501 | 12 / 37 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.81 | $15,793,479,500 | 12 / 37 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.81 | $15,793,479,500 | 12 / 37 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.88 | $16,134,960,093 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.88 | $16,159,957,754 | 13 / 33 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.88 | $16,159,957,754 | 15 / 33 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.88 | $16,159,957,754 | 15 / 34 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.88 | $16,159,957,754 | 15 / 34 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.87 | $16,191,847,581 | 15 / 34 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.87 | $16,191,847,406 | 15 / 35 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.87 | $16,191,847,406 | 15 / 35 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.87 | $16,197,424,636 | 15 / 35 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.87 | $16,197,424,636 | 16 / 35 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.87 | $16,197,424,636 | 16 / 35 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.87 | $16,197,424,636 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.87 | $16,197,415,288 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.87 | $16,197,415,288 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.87 | $16,204,646,739 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.87 | $16,204,646,739 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.87 | $16,204,646,739 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,850 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,846 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,846 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,846 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.87 | $16,205,371,846 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.86 | $16,191,243,933 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.86 | $16,191,243,085 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.86 | $16,191,243,085 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.86 | $16,191,243,085 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.86 | $16,191,243,085 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.86 | $16,188,993,239 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.86 | $16,188,993,239 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.86 | $16,188,993,239 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.86 | $16,188,993,239 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.86 | $16,188,992,621 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 17 / 36 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.86 | $16,191,151,544 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.86 | $16,191,152,526 | 18 / 36 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 42 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.