Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$333.26+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PANW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 71.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PANW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Operating margin is a key cost metric. A decline could signal inefficiencies.
Worry ifOperating margin is less than 29.5%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin meets or exceeds 30%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Falling below 22% could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 22%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 22%.
Why it matters: Total revenue shows how healthy the business is. Falling below this level means weaker performance.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q4 reported between $3.345 billion and $3.355 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue exceeds $3.355 billion.
Why it matters: Total revenue growth shows how healthy the business is. A drop may worry investors.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q4 is reported below $3.345 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue for Q4 is reported above $3.355 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop could indicate deeper issues.
Worry ifEPS guidance for FY 2026 reported below $3.77.
Less concerning ifEPS guidance for FY 2026 improves to $3.78 or higher.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well the company is running. A lower margin means higher costs.
Worry ifOperating margin for FY 2026 is below 29.5%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin for FY 2026 is above 30%.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost stock value. Updates may signal management confidence.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements or reductions in the buyback plan.
Why it matters: The adjusted free cash flow margin is a measure of financial health. A drop could indicate cash flow issues.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow margin reported below 38% for Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow margin reported at 38% or higher for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability. A miss could raise concerns about financial performance.
Worry ifDiluted non-GAAP EPS reported below $0.96 for Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifDiluted non-GAAP EPS reported at $0.96 or higher for Q1 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,601 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.