Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$348.04-0.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PANW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
PANW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Management set a $14.10 billion to $14.20 billion revenue range. A miss would weaken the growth outlook.
Worry ifFY2027 revenue guidance or reported revenue falls below $14.10 billion.
Less concerning ifFY2027 revenue is at least $14.10 billion and stays within the stated range.
Why it matters: The next report tests whether the latest outlook still holds. PANW's signal turned cautious, while the tech sector trend is easing.
Watch forOn November 18, PANW keeps Q1 revenue guidance at $3.300 billion to $3.310 billion and NGS ARR at $9.54 billion to $9.56 billion.
Also watch forPANW cuts either Q1 revenue guidance below $3.300 billion or NGS ARR guidance below $9.54 billion.
Why it matters: Q4 NGS ARR grew 63% year over year. A slower Q1 result would mark a clear loss of pace.
Worry ifOn November 18, Q1 FY2027 NGS ARR growth is below 63%, or ARR is below $9.54 billion.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY2027 NGS ARR reaches at least $9.54 billion and grows 63% year over year.
Why it matters: FY2026 margin was 38.4%, and the FY2027 goal is 38.0%. A lower result would put the FY2028 40% goal further away.
Worry ifFY2027 adjusted free cash flow margin is below 38.0%, or management cuts the 38.0% target.
Less concerning ifFY2027 adjusted free cash flow margin is at least 38.0%, with the FY2028 40% goal unchanged.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $476 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,509 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.