Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.69-1.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.61 → 15.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PARR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt with $500M senior notes issuance | The company issued $500 million in senior notes to manage debt. | Intact | Failure to maintain or refinance debt obligations | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy business with a potential renewable-fuels growth project, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but evidence is mixed because recent financial performance is strong while earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, though confidence in that comparison is low. The priced-in assessment is justified, and the evidence does not point to a large expectations gap. Valuation has risen recently, so the cheap-versus-peers signal should be read with care.
Near term, results may remain sensitive to the energy sector, and the evidence flags a history of recent misses despite a quiet current watch tier. Management has reduced gross term debt and reported much higher net income, while the Hawaii renewable-fuels facility remains a key execution item. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; the recent earnings beat and strong sector backdrop are supportive but do not remove that risk.
Over the next few quarters, completion and commercial startup of the Hawaii facility are important tests, especially as throughput has fallen even while margin per barrel improved. The multi-year view also depends on whether sector peers keep reporting strong results and raising guidance, or begin missing and lowering guidance. Litigation and the recent president transition add uncertainty, but the evidence gives little detail on their possible business impact.
Over a 1 to 3 year horizon, strong recent profitability, debt reduction, and a sector tailwind support an intact thesis, while fragile earnings quality, execution needs, and elevated risk limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete and operate facility. |
| Intact |
| Facility not operational by end of 2026 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves or stabilizes near recent levels | Net income showed some improvement despite recent misses. | Improving | net income falls below $50 million in any quarter | Net income: $353.31M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million net income per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026353,310,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 0.8% annually | A primary condition in Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 0.8% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 0.8% YoY | Revenue growth: 51.64% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 0.8% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 202651.640936 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.23 → $15.63 · observed estimates
$7.39B → $8.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.23 | $7,391,129,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.23 | $7,391,129,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.61 | $7,414,915,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.61 | $7,414,915,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.61 | $7,414,915,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.61 | $7,414,915,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.61 | $7,414,915,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.34 | $7,414,844,890 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.14 | $7,418,011,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.14 | $7,418,011,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.14 | $7,418,011,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.97 | $7,295,688,940 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.43 | $7,418,082,207 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.09 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.46 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.46 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.46 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.46 | $7,397,333,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.75 | $7,418,166,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.61 | $7,657,216,707 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.78 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.78 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.13 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.13 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.13 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.91 | $7,715,383,373 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.58 | $7,881,050,040 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.70 | $8,038,168,873 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.70 | $8,038,168,873 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.70 | $8,038,168,873 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.70 | $8,038,168,873 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.49 | $8,109,835,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.49 | $8,109,835,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.49 | $8,109,835,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.24 | $8,213,785,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.24 | $8,213,785,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.24 | $8,213,785,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.24 | $8,213,785,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.24 | $8,213,785,540 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.63 | $8,213,785,540 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.