Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$68.69-1.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PARR — President transition
Dated 2026-09-28
Executive Vice President — Richard Creamer: The filing announces a planned retirement of a senior executive (EVP) with a transition period as Senior Advisor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Par Pacific expects about $146 million from the sale and plans to exit its Laramie stake. A close would confirm the cash proceeds and exit.
Supportive ifThe sale closes by December 31, 2026. The company reports expected proceeds of about $146 million.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by year-end, or the company reports that it was ended or materially changed.
Why it matters: Most Hawaii units were back online after the turnaround. Higher run rates would test whether the refinery can capture strong margins.
Supportive ifHawaii throughput rises above 73 Mbpd and moves toward the 88 Mbpd recorded in 2025-Q2.
Worry ifHawaii throughput stays near or below 73 Mbpd in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Management has named the facility as a key goal. A start date or first output would show that the project is moving ahead.
Supportive ifThe company reports that the Hawaii facility has started work or sold its first fuel.
Worry ifThe company reports a delay, higher project cost, or no start date in its next update.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $549 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,673 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.