Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.32-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PARR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-25
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 25, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the signing of the Agreement. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the foregoing information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or o…
Why it matters: Good debt management can help financial stability. It can also build investor trust.
Supportive ifA report confirming the effective use of proceeds from the Senior Notes to reduce debt.
Worry ifNews about problems managing debt or not using funds well.
Why it matters: Sales volumes show how much consumers want the product and the health of the business.
Worry ifRetail segment fuel sales volumes decline more than 3.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifRetail segment fuel sales volumes increase or decline less than 3.3% year over year.
Why it matters: If throughput stabilizes, it shows recovery from the recent turnaround. This shows strength.
Supportive ifHawaii refinery throughput stays above 75 Mbpd for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifHawaii refinery throughput stays below 75 Mbpd for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show weaker performance and market issues.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $400 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 stays above $400 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $498 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,673 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new debt may change how flexible the finances are and affect future investments.
Watch forLiquidity gets better after the debt is issued. Cash balance goes above $172.2 million.
Also watch forLiquidity goes down or stays the same even after the new debt is issued.
Why it matters: Reducing debt would make the company more stable and improve its finances.
Supportive ifGross term debt drops below $500 million after the notes offering.
Worry ifGross term debt remains above $600 million after the notes offering.
Why it matters: Exceeding this level shows strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifNet income for Par Pacific stockholders is over $500 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet income falls below $400 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This debt issuance is a key part of Par Pacific's capital strategy. It could affect future financial flexibility and growth plans.
Watch forThe market reacts well. Credit ratings go up after the issuance.
Also watch forThe market reacts poorly. Credit ratings fall after the issuance.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is vital for Par Pacific's market position. It reflects the effectiveness of their sales strategies.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $1.82 billion, showing strong sales.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $1.82 billion. This shows possible problems with market demand.
Why it matters: Cutting debt helps with financial stability. It shows good money management.
Supportive ifGross term debt reduced below $500 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifGross term debt stays above $500 million, showing slow progress on improving capital structure.
Why it matters: This issuance is part of the strategy to manage debt. Its success will affect financial stability.
Watch forThe company added $500 million in senior notes to its capital.
Also watch forThe company has trouble managing its debt after issuing new notes.
Why it matters: The sale could provide Par Pacific with $146 million in cash. This would improve liquidity and reduce debt.
Supportive ifThe transaction closes by the end of 2026 with no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe transaction faces significant delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows strong performance and good market conditions.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $462.1 million reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $462.1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Refining throughput impacts revenue and profit. Changes may indicate problems or market shifts.
Watch forRefining throughput will rise above 181 Mbpd in Q2 2026.
Also watch forRefining throughput will drop below 181 Mbpd in future quarters.